Pedigree contributes mightily to the Kentucky Derby and its lineage of champions. Riders Up! pays particular attention to these details. The unique physical features it inherits from its sire (father) and dam (mother) predispose its ability to attain 1 1/4 miles on dirt and speed. Training can certainly enhance (or hinder) such predispositions, but it always comes back to breeding.
Winning the Kentucky Derby monetarily impacts the dam and sire stud fees along with others in its line. Two key sires are Raise a Native and Northern Dancer. These two have been instrumental in siring Derby winners. Raise a Native sire line (notably Mr. Prospector) has the Derby winner in 14 of last 24 (58%), 11 of last 16 (69%) and 8 of last 11 (73%). Pretty impressive. You may hear someone discussing dosage, I think this is becoming less and less an item. Historically, horse with greater than 4.00 did not have a high probability of winning. This year only one horse, Nehro, is above 4.00 (4.33).
This post will highlight each horse's ancestry. You will see a box around solid Derby lineage. Horses without any historical ancestry (Animal Kingdom, Twice the Appeal and Derby Kitten --now in due to Toby's Corner injury) will be discounted heavily in analysis.
Horses with Northern Dancer (11) in its line include Comma to the Top, Decisive Moment, Dialed In, Master of Hounds, Midnight Interlude, Pants on Fire, Santva, Shackleford Soldat, Stay Thirsty and Twinspired.
Horses with Raise a Native (6) in its line include Archarcharch, Brilliant Speed, Dialed In, Master of Hounds, Nehro, Watch Me Go. Note that Nehro has Mr. Prospector on both the sire and dam side -- talk about inbreeding.
Also note that Dialed In and Master of Hounds have both lines in its heritage. The analysis continues.
"Riders Up! See You in the Winner's Circle."
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