Derby Trends and Post Draw

Funny Cide - 2003 Derby Winner

Having been a former futures trader, the maxim "the trend is your friend" would often echo in my head.  Now I am the first to admit I have faded the trend in past selections with Funny Cide (2003) first gelding since Van Dusen in 1929 (Mine That Bird was also a Gelding), Barbaro (2006) snapped 50 year 5-week+ layoff jinx and Big Brown (2008) coming from 20 hole.  Note trends are made to be broken.  Remember, markets dictate trends and my goal is to educate my fellow followers on this Derby phenomenon.  With lackluster preps this race is wide open.  Take note that many trends have come crashing down as evidenced above.  Will that be the case this year.

• No horse has won the Derby without running as a 2 year old since Apollo in 1882 (15-Midnight Interlude did not run in 2010)
• Only 3 horses have won from posts 17-20 since 1900 (17-Soldat, 18-Uncle Mo, 19-Nehro and 20-Watch Me Go)
•  94% of Derby winners finished either 1st, 2nd or 3rd in final prep (4-Stay Thirsty, 12-Santiva, 17-Soldat and 20-Watch Me Go)
• Only 3 Derby winners with purchase price of $500k or greater like Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 (4-Stay Thirsty $500k and close is 8-Dialed In at $475k)
• Last time a Derby winner had only 4 starts was Exterminator in 1918 (7-Dialed In, 15-Midnight Interlude and 16-Animal Kingdom) Note Big Brown only had 3 starts prior.
• Derby Favorite had a 20 year jinx until Big Brown broke while 4 of past 11 have been favorites.
• 11 Derby winners since 1980 (30 races) have entered without a graded stakes win as a 3 year old. 

Post draw was held today and many pundits say the death grip is placed on 17-20 holes.  No winner has come from 17 or 19 holes, ever -- not a good omen for Soldat and Nehro.  Uncle Mo did not receive any favors with 18 spot despite being the best horse on paper and the 2 year old champion last year.  Watch Me Go is an automatic toss out.

Archarcharch was not given any favors being placed in the "dreaded" 1 hole.  Last winner was Ferdinand in 1986 with Willie Shoemaker from the 1 hole.  The Longines clock on landing page of kentuckyderby.com is ticking closer to the race.

"Riders Up!  See You in the Winner's Circle."