Prep Race Analysis (SA Derby / Wood / Illinois / Arkansas)

With a Diet Coke in hand, it's time to pull up a chair and breakdown the tapes of the Derby Preps.  Let's liken it to practice rounds at Augusta National.  The following few posts will detail prep races culminating with the "Par 3" best preps (a Master's tradition of watching with James my 3-year old son every year).  Familiarity with running styles, seeing if there is gas in the tank during the stretch and type of race set-up are my keys.  Much like the progressions a QB goes through when reading defenses-- what will catch my eye and build a solid case for my 2010 Derby selection.

Special thank you to DRF for providing Charts and Racing Video.

Santa Anita Derby (4/3 Santa Anita)- Chart   Race Video

Lookin At Lucky was the prohibitive favorite entering this race (and potentially the Derby) -- A wickedly tough trip ensued and commenced with Garret Gomez getting into fisticuffs with Victor Espinoza in the jock's room post race.  Had trouble in traffic here -- can you imagine the traffic in the Derby -- will make me think hard about this one.
Sidney's Candy went wire to wire to win but I must say at an alarmingly slow pace (:24 and change followed by :48 change).  The trip yielded the all important 100 Beyer (pretty much a necessity to win the Derby save for last year).   
Setsuko is the horse I fell in love with after reviewing the tapes.  Only problem he may have a lot of trouble getting into the Derby based on graded earnings.  Currently residing at 25 will need many defections.  The colt was dead last for the majority of an excruciatingly slow race and was flying down the back stretch at the wire.  Certainly would have blown by Sidney's Candy with the extra 1/8 of mile in the Run for the Roses.  Certainly on my radar!!

Wood Memorial (4/3 Aqueduct) - Chart  Race Video
Eskendereya simply was the class of this race.  Prior to the race was neck and neck with Lookin At Lucky for Derby favorite potential.  Officially will be the morning line favorite.  The race was very slow with :24 and :49.  Won by 9 1/2 with Velazquez looking back multiple times during stretch in an easy hand ride home.
Jackson Bend was best of rest.
Awesome Act stumbled at gate and never got on track -- tough trip and was tiring in the stretch where JB passed him. Will certainly look at more tape on him and see if there is more there.

Illinois Derby (4/3 Hawthorne) - Chart  Race Video
American Lion is a speedster.  The race didn't exactly exemplify this with :24 and :49 but yielded a wire to wire win. Race did nothing for me in terms of other competitors -- might be too much early speed in Derby to see a "War Emblem-esque" race (was at the 2002 version for a great friend and hockey teammate from Notre Dame John Rushin's bachelor party -- we had a great run with a Win Pool that day).

Arkansas Derby (4/10 Oaklawn) - Chart  Race Video
Line of David who's father Lion Heart (speedster who placed behind Smarty Jones and connected for Hillary's trifecta in 2004 Derby) romped to a wire to wire win in a blazing pace (:22 and :46).  Admittedly this was a very slow finishing race thanks to the early blazing pace.  Where were the closers? Could be the Derby speed horse with Sidney's Candy.  Interestingly, both are trained by the same man, John Adler -- what will his strategy be? 
Super Saver was second fiddle the entire trip which essentially showed me nothing -- if entered will most likely eliminate from any betting contention.
Noble's Promise the race favorite had a difficult trip and tired down the stretch.  Will certainly have to see more on him if he is to be considered.  Plus short layoff -- only 3 weeks.

The Diet Coke soothed me during this study session.  I am really hoping Setsuko can get into the gate -- I liked his form.  4 Preps down and 8 or so more to go. 
See you in the Winner's Circle.  Riders Up!