'14

Derby 2014 Selection

The first Saturday in May is upon us bringing anticipation for another run at the Triple Crown (36 years since Affirmed).  Derby's 140th running should turn into the Twitter Derby given the characters.  Further this is the 50th anniversary of Northern Dancer's triumph in the Run for the Roses.  Northern Dancer 

influences the Derby still today with his lineage and was named Sire of the Century (20th Century) -- impressive. Oddly think he would have rather laced up the skates than horseshoes as he hailed from Canada.  2014 marks 16th selection and 9th consecutive analysis by Riders Up.  Not one for self promotion but the track record speaks for itself.  Simply following advice by placing $100 WPS on the selections has yielded $11,030 in net profits (Rider's Up Selection History).  Preparation and film study has been in overdrive leading to this year's "fastest two minutes in sports."  Typically we would be following Kiper and McShay's efforts with the draft but the NFL needed to touch every month of the year by having Schedule Release Night in April and pushing the draft to May (post Derby). 

Ardent followers of Riders Up know other topics are in play (family, sports, business and sometime politics) with this annual compendium of horse racing parlance.  Bitcoin is in its infancy and had reader's heeded advice last year and purchased bitcoin at around $93, the entertaining volatile ride to just shy of $1,200 and now hovering at $450 may have been fruitful -- suffice to say typical of a nascent market. Love pullbacks -- buying opportunity.  Big believer in the technology (Bitcoin) and proponent of it how it may become a viable global digital currency among other things.  Reminiscent of the early stages of the internet (at least public internet in the 90's).  Obviously the internet thing panned out pretty well. Bitcoin connects the dots on my career from ATMs, trading to venture capital today.  More to come on this front. 

This is the final year for Derek Jeter.  Wish him well as he collects myriad of rocking chairs. Thank you Captain.

My son James (7) competed in The Master's wonderful new event Drive, Chip and Putt.  He and I road tripped to Southern California for a qualifying event July 8, 2013 with a chance to get to Augusta.  He was the youngest competitor as he was 6 at the time and made for a memorable day.  He stepped up with confidence and just missed qualifying for the next round despite competing against 9 year olds - get them again this summer.  The top qualifiers traveled to Augusta National the Sunday prior to this year's tournament to compete.  Side note we met Leo Cheng (and family) who became the eventual 10-12 age group winner.  James continues to excel at sports loving golf, flag football, soccer, baseball, hoops.  He fell in love with the Seahawks run this year (interesting living in the Bay Area) and coached by a Trojan. 

Meanwhile, Elle continues to grow up quickly -- can we freeze time.  She is "4 and a half" going on 25.  Fashion, music and dancing play a huge role in her life.  Passionate about pairing the right outfit for each day of school.  Amazes me how she knows the artist and songs.  She'd be killer at Name that Tune.  Katy Perry, Taylor Swift, Ellie Goulding and the list goes on.  She still loves throwing her Gangnam Style dance at any potential spectators -- fearless.  She is finishing up preschool and makes the leap to Kindergarten next year.  Little Miss Socializer -- love it.

Thank you's to the horsemen I trust in gaining additional perspective to help my prep each year.  Those include Mike Welsch, Dan Illman Mike Beer and Jon White.  Without having met these horseplayers, I feel as if they are friends.  Speaking of Horseplayers, I enjoyed the entertaining first season of the new show on Esquire.  Hmmm thinking a cameo and hanging with Team Rotondo, Christian Hellmers and the rest of the cast partaking in their zany antics may be in the offing -- any casting directors out there?  

Without further adieu let's dig into the irons and determine the next winner.  Heading into the 140th running the undoubted favorite will be California Chrome.  Rightfully so as this equine has navigated beautifully through the prep season.  I am a big fan as there is so much to like.  Interestingly he has race 10 times to date which is not the norm in the sport today.  More on him later, but it will come down to you taking a stand with or against Chrome.  

That said, after the post draw we learned that Hoppertunity injured his leg in training over the slop on Monday (pictured during that work).  Disappointing to Riders Up as he was to be the 2014 Selection.  Really liked the the way Baffert was pointing him towards the first Saturday in May.  Had he won he would have been the first horse since 1882 to not race as a 2 year old and win the Derby.  Apollo did it that year.  Needless to say quite the curse -- but there is a nugget that I think gave Hoppertunity an advantage to erase this curse -- he scratched from a race in November so he was primed to go as a 2 year old and later made his maiden on January 4.  That said others will say he was a distant second to California Chrome in the Santa Anita Derby which is true but was merely a simple work for Hoppertunity as he already had enough points for the Derby coupled with a speed bias at Santa Anita that I think would benefit him at Churchill.  

Also of note is that Pablo Del Monte was an Also Eligible that could have run but decided to scratch this morning (Friday).  This is noteworthy as now the horses in PP 1-10 will load into the gate one spot away.  Thus the 1 will load in hole 2 and so forth.  Had Pablo Del Monte run he would have been in the 20 hole and the those from 12-20 would have moved one hole to the left.

Running styles of those entered play a critical role to how the Derby will be run.  The following breaks down the individual running styles.  Note that California Chrome has a significant tactical advantage in this race as he has speed but can also rate so a duel up front he can stay back (which is why he is listed twice).  More to discuss here when I demonstrate my take on the race later on.

Every year there are horses entered that really do not belong, this is essentially the Kardashians making an appearance on the red carpet (a la the post parade) with My Old Kentucky Home playing as they trot.  The owners get to check off a bucket list item.  Eliminate these from your tickets.

Now we are left with 12 horses making it easier to handicap the most analyzed race of the year.  This year I will eliminate 3 more horses that could threaten to mess my tickets which seems small in number but does have merit as you will see I am taking a stand against California Chrome winning this years race.   General A Rod could have a steroid issue or spends time staring into a mirror -- obviously kidding but he has not been training very well.  Pedigree and current form play a large role in determining who can win this race. Chitu should be first or second at the 1/4 pole meaning he would need to pull off a War Emblem type race -- the pace may not be as fast as previous episodes but do not think he can get the distance -- by the way I was at the War Emblem race thanks to my great friend John Rushin and his bachelor party (good times) still can't believe the Show Pool bet made it through 6 races before we made an error.

Now on to the contenders who I think are vying for the garland of roses.  This is a solid group of thoroughbreds seeking immortality this weekend with additional individual tidbits to help you sound intelligent with Derby speak at your parties or kids games this weekend.  

Danza (4) 8-1 Beyer 102 Dosage 3.00 Strikes 2 Jockey - Bravo, Trainer - Pletcher:

• Yes named after Tony Danza - "Who's The Boss?" Thinking Alyssa Milano needs to be in attendance.
• Huge 40-1 winner in Arkansas Derby similar to Will Take Charge prior to Derby Win
• Raise a Native (Sire) and Northern Dancer (Dam) lines -- Zenyatta, Street Sense relative.
• Training nicely with an ok final prep -- this is 3rd off a layoff which I like.
• 2 Strikes is a big knock coupled with questions on distance 
• Do you want a 40-1 winner last out with a perfect trip at much shorter odds with 18 other horses in the field?
• Exotic Play

California Chrome (5) 5-2 Beyer 108 Dosage 3.40 Strikes 0 Espinoza, Sherman:

• Most certain favorite and class of field. Tactical runner. Never raced outside of Cali.
• Only horse to have 4 consecutive victories by 5 lengths or more.  Think about that Count Fleet, Citation, Secretariat, Seattle Slew or Spectacular Bid did not achieve this.
• Owners formed an entity named Dumb-Ass Partners which is what they were called by friends after buying the California Chrome's mom for $8,000. Would be a cool story.
• Over $1MM in earnings.  Only Derby winner with $1MM is Street Sense
• Only 3 California Bred horse have won Derby.  1962 (Decidedly) was last as was 1955 (Swaps) who the trainer Art Sherman was the exercise rider for -- talk about experience and fate :)
• Not sold on getting the distance and has history of sluggish breaks from gate.
• Training ok...not the best pre-race tune up -- has he peaked?

Samraat (6) 15-1 Beyer 98 Dosage 1.22 Strikes 0 Ortiz, Violette:

• Under the radar, only 1 loss (2nd) in 6 tries. 
• Wood Memorial placed behind Wicked Strong
• Training wonderfully with solid work leading to Derby
• Pedigree is the question mark here.  Not sure can get the distance will be in mix but may get passed in stretch. New York bred trying to duplicate Riders Up 2003 selection and Derby winner Funny Cide.
• Owned by Chairman of Barnes and Noble Leonard Riggio - hence the silks in those colors.

Dance With Fate (12) 20-1 Beyer 97 Dosage 1.91 Strikes 1 Dual Qualifier Nakatani, Eurton:

• Seems to be the Wise Guy choice for those against California Chrome. 
• Owners overruled trainers plan to skip Derby and go to Preakness.
• Blue Grass winner, people may question of Polytrack specialist.  We will see.
• Training excellent, looks the part. Huge blowout in last work prior to race -- key indicator
• Has beaten (2nd) California Chrome (6th) (G1 Del Mar Futurity)
• Distance question??  Nakatani has most starts in Derby history without a win.
• Owner has ties to the X Games by designing and owning skateparks.
• Must beat Dual Qualifier status which has an atrocious record in the Derby over the past 20 years.

Medal Count (14) 20-1 Beyer 94 Dosage 2.13 Strikes 0 Albarado, Romans:

• Pedigree - Solid certainly gets the distance which is why he is a contender
• Relative to Barbaro (Riders Up Favorite) by way of Dynaformer
• Heavily raced. Ran 4/4 (1st) and then 4/12 (2nd). 3 races in 29 days - time machine
• Solid works and looks ready despite recent heavy race load.
• Is he a Polytrack specialist?
• Owner Wayne Hughes founded the largest Public Storage company in the US.

Intense Holiday (16) 8-1 Beyer 97 Dosage 3.80 Strikes 0 Velazquez, Pletcher:

• Rated/bumped in last out LA Derby (beaten by Vicar's in Trouble). 
• Many local clockers are impressed with how he is training.  Last work was solid and good gallop out.
• Pedigree has the the Northern Dancer (Sire) and Raise a Native (Dam) lineage. Should get distance.
• Crossfires when running sometimes -- concern.  Trouble switching leads.
• Only 2 Wins in 8 lifetime starts.  Always hanging around the hoop.

Candy Boy (18) 15-1 Beyer 96 Dosage 1.67 Strikes 1 Stevens, Sadler:

• Will be 2nd race after prolonged rest -- positive. 
• Rough Santa Anita Derby as was forward placed to pace -- will stalk more here.
• Easily gets the distance. Both Sire and Dam provide stamina.
• Strike is the 1/8 pole factor (being 1st or 2nd with 1/8th to go) 48 of last 51 Derby winners did were 1st or 2nd with a furlong to go.
• Question is will he improve. Like Stevens experience here.

Ride On Curlin (19) 15-1 Beyer 98 Dosage 3.44 Strikes 2 Borel, Gowan:

• 2nd in Arkansas Derby to Danza. Was bumped at the start.
• Heavy foundation with 9 races to date wining 2 times, placing 2 and show 4.
• Exotic play!!! 2 Strikes probably keeps him from winning
• Has Raise a Native (Sire) and Northern Dancer (Dam) lineage.  Easily gets distance.
• Love this, owner Daniel Dougherty purchased for $25,000 and recently turned down $1MM. 

Wicked Strong (20) 6-1 Beyer 104 Dosage 2.27 Strikes 1 Maragh, Jerkens:

• Easily was most affected by post position.  20 is a tough spot as only Big Brown has won from there.  Still one to watch.
• Training solid -- certainly looks like a champion. Great final work with strong gallop out.
• As fast as California Chrome -- more of deeper closer.  If pace is super hot, he will be in striking distance.
• Certainly a contender, strike is similar to Candy Boy (1/8 pole).
• Named in honor of the Boston Marathon victims.  Owner donates portion of winnings to One Fund Boston to support victim's families.

Race/Pace Set-up

This year the race is slightly different than year's past.  There certainly is speed but I do not feel it is blazing speed as we saw last year. When fractions at the 1/4 pole are like :22 or low :23s it is breakneck followed by :45 or :46s at the 1/2 pole.  Key for any Derby winner is avoiding the cavalcade of horses rounding the first turn -- clean trips win due to the distance. This sets up for deep closers like Orb last year and Riders Up 2010 selection Ice Box (2nd place) to pick horses off coming down the stretch.  I see this race having speed but not that fast.  This will bring those stalkers who rate off the early speed to be in good position and have a good shot at a safe trip.  As mentioned earlier California Chrome suits this style well as do others in this race.  It will be interesting as they head for home and Larry Collmus shouts "And Down the Stretch they come!" 

Riders Up! Sponsors

Trunk Club and Quirky are great companies.  Trunk Club would be excellent for any of your Derby clothing needs while Quirky will take your invention and bring it to market.  Please check them out.

Trunk Club  and Quirky

Riders Up 2014 Selection

Last year we broke through with winning selection Orb.  If you recall Rider Up! made two selections given Orb being a heavy favorite when in the end Revolutionary actually edged him out once bettors placed their money -- certainly Calvin Bo"rail" factor was in play.  Orb won and Revolutionary finished 3rd so it was a nice win and good analysis.  Let's see if this year matches.  I am a huge fan of California Chrome but find it hard to go with him so I am taking a position against -- for the selection (may include him on top with betting strategy).  Had he been training at the top of his game (like Orb land Revolutionary last year) I would have thought differently.  Further there is a distance question.  We will see tomorrow at 3:24 to 3:26pm PT.  Enjoy your mint juleps and have fun at the races.  

Let it be known Candy Boy is certainly not a safe a pick this year but feel he is ready for a big race being his second after a prescribed layoff.   Wicked Strong may have been my selection where it not for the 20 hole.  My betting strategy will have Candy Boy and Cali Chrome (possibly Wicked strong too) over these others for exotics.  Odds will play a factor in those decisions.  Good Luck!

"Riders Up! See You in the Winner's Circle."