2008 Kentucky Derby Race Analysis
The first Saturday of May is upon us thus reintroducing us to the Mint Juleps, stylish hats and celebrity sightings on Millionaires Row on the hallowed grounds of Churchill Downs. This will be the 134th running of the Derby and history always dictates who will receive the roses. Before we really begin I must admit that my preparation for this running has been in a much diminished role which I find quite interesting as this year’s race lacks the typical hoopla. To me it is a weaker race than in the past which makes it that much more difficult to predict. That does not go without saying that I do feel my input could prove profitable for you punters.
A week ago most people could not name a Derby contender, which is a shame. With that there is one horse that I feel has a legitimate shot to win the Triple Crown (Big Brown) – simply because his competition is sub par and he would be an also ran in past Derby’s. This seems apropos considering the lack of interest this year and racing needs a feel good story since it has been two years since Barbaro’s run (feel free to pay your respects while viewing his ashes inside the museum at Churchill).
Let’s get on with the race.
As always let us eliminate the horses who should be running in a $5,000 claimer at Turfway Park during a Tuesday Matinee in December (not really but close).
3-Anak Nakal , 7-Big Truck, 15-Adriano, 16-Cowboy Gal
The next level may have a fighting chance to get into the money but you have to make decisions and these guys will not get my vote, much like Barrack or Hillary (Hillrack). Side note: the Dems may find a way to really screw this up. McCain just say you will be a one term President and this could become quite interesting.
1-Cool Coal Man, 2-Tale of Ekati, 4-Court Vision, 6-Z Fortune, 8-Visionaire, 11-Z Humor,
12-Smooth Air, 16-Dennis of Cork
So that leaves 8 horses that I can handicap. Remember in any race the key is to get to a workable number. Here are my notes in numerical order.
5-Eight Belles: The only girl at the dance. On the 20th Anniversary of the last Filly to win (Winning Colors ‘88) I can see Brian William’s leading off Monday’s NBC Nightly News telecast with “Eight Belles and Hillary looking strong as we head to DC (Preakness/President). My best bet of the day is that she will win Best Hat of the entries.
9-Pyro: I really like this horse (from bloodlines to running style) and drew a good post. Throw out the Bluegrass on synthetic turf at my favorite track in the world Keeneland. In most races he would be the one I lean on and bet heavy, but probably not the way this race is shaping up. Not enough early speed for his closing abilities ala former Cubbie “little glove” Lee Smith. He will be there though if he gets a clean trip which may be tough coming from the middle and being a closer weaving through more traffic than the Edens at 5:26 on a weekday.
10-Colonel John: This is the “Sexy” pick since Big Brown is in post 20. Most people are laying on him. He is a solid horse but one prerequisite for me is a 100 Beyer. The only horse to win the Derby without a 100 Beyer coming in is Giacomo – a horse named after Sting’s son and a 50-1 shot in a race that had a crazy early pace—I guess it had to happen sometime. He only has a 95. His odds will not be in a bettor’s interest and wholly due to this I will stand down on a win bet. He will be included in exotics. I do like the fact that part of his pedigree includes a horse I have great affinity, Imperialism, who assisted in my big score (tri and super) when Smarty Jones won in 2004.
13-Bob Black Jack: Has anyone heard of this guy? Please get acquainted. This race could be reminiscent of War Emblem’s wire to wire romp in 2002 and sets up perfectly for him. Besides his silks have JH and his breeding is quite impressive despite the fact that most people are not sure he can get the distance – it won’t matter because no one will be pushing him the first ½ mile. He is my Tanqueray Tonic pick to click (TT got the naming rights as I am the heir apparent to replace Hugh Hefner when he kicks the bucket).
14-Monba: Pletcher’s best chance this year. This is becoming ridiculous that every Derby the talk surrounds when he will win one—He is to horse racing what Phil and Monty are to golf. Talented trainer but think he comes up short again this year although Monba is a threat.
18-Recapturetheglory: Potential to be a sneaky winner. Louis Roussel has toiled for many years on the backside of many tracks. I remember him way back in my introduction to horse racing in my early teens—long story for another time if he celebrates with Bob Costas. He had a horse long ago named Risen Star who came in 3rd at the Derby after a rough trip. Will he recapture that glory? Pedigree and races lend to a potential Derby champion.
19-Gayego Was my pick to win a few weeks ago until Wednesday. This post killed any chance. The distance was the question and now it is not a chance. I don’t think he can win but could get into the money for place, show or super.
20-Big Brown: The horse to beat. Without question the class of this race. But his issue is his post. Only one horse has won from PP 20 – Clyde Van Deusen – 1929 winner (if he wins hopefully we do not have a stock market crash which leads to a depression). Clyde came up in my greatest score ever at the Derby – Funny Cide as they were Geldings and that rarely happens. Another strike against him is he has only raced three times. Only one other Derby winner has accomplished that feat – The filly Regret 1915. Oddly enough we have a filly in this running. If he wins I would consider him a solid choice for a Triple Crown winner not because he is a great horse but because he is the others are weaker.
The Race itself:
I really feel the pace will be dictated by Bob Black Jack and he will not be pushed which is the key to my selection. It is a wild card that will pay handsomely if it comes in—I am sure there is not one expert who sees the race this way – so take it for what it is worth. IT also very easily could be a huge flop – I am putting myself out there much like Bud Fox and Bluestar Airlines. IT will be very interesting how Big Brown breaks and where he is at the first turn, if he is 3 lengths off of the ¼ leaders he more than likely wins the race as he is the class. Other horses that will be just off the pace include Colonel John, Recapturetheglory, Monba and some I have omitted. Pyro will be way back and wishing this year the Pope had stayed an extra week and replaced the Queen for important dignitaries who have visited the Derby. Hopefully I will rise out of my seat when Dave Johns screams “And down the Stretch they come…Bob Black Jack is running away with the Derby.” Much like Mel Kiper I am already working on the 2009 Derby as this one has been quite disappointing in the lead up to the fastest two minutes in sports.
Tanqueray Tonic Pick to Click: 13 – Bob Black Jack
As of this writing, I have not devised my exact betting idea but do know that the following will be including in some way. I will Key Big Brown and Bob Black Jack with some combination of these other horses for Tri and Super.
13, 20, 18, 10, 9, 5
For my official selection for these purposes:
Big Brown-20
Bob Black Jack-13
Colonel John-10
Pyro-9
Recapturetheglory-18
Eight Belles-5
Disclaimer: “Past performance does not guarantee future results.”
