Riders Up!: '13

The equine equivalent to The Masters, Super Bowl and Stanley Cup (go Sharks) is upon us with the annual rendition of the "Run for the Roses." Amazing that this will be the 15th official selection and 8th consecutive newsletter/blog post highlighting race analysis and ultimate Derby horse. Further it is the ten year anniversary of the greatest score for Riders Up! when selecting Funny Cide (breaking the gelding curse) and also having the next 4 horses thus sweeping the exacta, trifecta and super -- great memories with Chris Novogratz on that trip to the Twin Spires. Suffice to say it is a treat for me to share this knowledge (or in many cases lack thereof) that I began accumulating as an adolescent going to Canterbury Downs with my Mom and Dad, continuing through college and my maiden voyage to Churchill for the first Friday and Saturday of May.

Amazing year as we moved into our new home which requires some renovations (hopefully this weekend assists). Our home has had an impact on James, as his favorite TV channel is HGTV (Property Brothers, Love It or List It, House Hunters). Along with school sports consumes his life with golf, flag football, t-ball, basketball, soccer among others. Elle has fallen in love with the Food Network specifically Giada while enjoying ballet, gymnastics and constantly cracking us up with her Gangnam Style dance but yet to convert to the Harlem Shake. Hillary is tirelessly serving James' school and soon to be PTO President thus making me the First Man of Laurel.

Silicon Valley delivers on so many fronts especially weather, sorry Minnesota (really snow in May??). Zero chance of shoveling or dealing with humidity in the future. Friendships continue to blossom for us here in Menlo Park as I write this Hillary is with a group playing Bunco and sure drinking prosecco. Beyond weather and friendships, the innovation inspires as I work with companies that change the world. 3D Printing, Google Glass (or its competition) and Bitcoin are part of everyday parlance. "Software is eating the world" (kudos Mark Andreessen for that meme) coupled with big data is impacting how we purchase and share products and services. Fascinating times. Okay enough let's get to the real show --- time to select this year's Derby Winner.

Many thanks this year to Mike Welsch, Mike Beer, Dan Illman all of DRF for added prep analysis. I morphed into the Derby version of college football's Phil Steele (awesome season Irish - from Dublin with my best friends to LA with my family and ending in Miami with best friends and our wives -- but SEC undoubtedly is king). This year I incorporated chatting with the horses via Twitter -- invaluable insight and humor. Decided to add another feature highlighting each Thoroughbred's running style. Front Runner, Stalker, Mid-Pack and Deep Closer. Goal is to help you understand my methodology to the race.

On to the knockout round. The horses simply have no reason being here save a front row ticket to the fast two minutes in sports. Some are good horses but do not fit the Derby profile.

Leaves us with 13 more colts all vying for this year's coveted title -- not Derby Winner but Riders Up! 2013 Selection. So let's continue the elimination process. These are threats and merit respect.

And poof, six still stand. Let's examine closer at each of these worthy contestants. Certainly can make a case for each of these horses but that is certainly not why you are reading this blog -- errr novel. Note that I am not a fan of Euro shippers and do give some credit to Lines of Battle as he will be first time lasix. Mylute will be an overlay with Rosie Napravnik fresh off her 60 minutes showing in the irons. Vyjack drew the worse of any viable horse.

3 - Revolutionary: Classic pedigree will easily allow this Pletcher colt (1 of 5) to get the 1 1/4 miles. Lineage includes Hoist the Flag which reminds me of a favorite relative who crushed it at Canterbury (Hoist her Flag). Also has Mr. Prospector, AP Indy, Seattle Slew and War Pass. Has been training well and liking the venerable Churchill downs oval. Sitting on a large race as it is his third off of a career best 102 Beyer. The tape on the Withers race shows its determination of fighting through traffic and winning from way back deep in the stretch. Last out beat Departing who went on to win the graded Illinois Derby. Having Calvin Bo-Rail is huge here and getting the 3 hole entices his prospects. Hmmm note that Borel was just named to the Jockey Hall of Fame this week -- seems that worked well for Louisville's Pitino last month.

5 - Normandy Invasion: First off this horse has #BostonStrong rooting as it is prevalent in its pedigree with Boston Lady (dam), and Boston Harbor (dam's sire) and incorporates red into its silks. Distance may be a slight question but should get there. Normandy Invasion placed 2nd in the Wood but during the gallop out stormed past Verrazano which points to its ability to maybe nudge ahead of the undefeated horse here (good trip a must). Has an up and coming trainer in Chad Brown. Worthy to be included in this group as he reminds me of Funny Cide. This would be his 2nd career win which is an anomaly for Derby winners.

8 - Goldencents: Speaking of Pitino, he is part owner of this horse. Wow quite the month if Krigger can bring this one home -- nonetheless quite a month. Had impressive performance last out in the Santa Anita Derby with a 105 Beyer. My question mark is can he get the distance -- I am not so sure, but I do expect him to be there at the top of the stretch, will he hold on is the question. Wise Guys all state that the California crop this year is down. His trainer (albeit with some PED controversy) was 2012 Derby Winner's trainer. Did he peak to soon?

12 - Itsmyluckyday: Not much chatter here but he is going about his business and training very well. Reminds me of my 1995 winner Thunder Gulch but will not quite have that high of odds. Distance could be a knock here. This will be his 11th start which is highly abnormal in 3YOs these days. Has 2 of the best Beyers of any of the entries.

14 - Verrazano: Late bloomer who did not race as a 2YO (granted made his maiden on New Year's Day) and another Pletcher entry. Thus must overcome one of the few remaining Derby curses (Cubbies are certainly watching). In 1882, Apollo became the only unraced 2YO to win the Derby. Granted back then it was a 1 1/2 mile race and his win was an epic upset on the lines of Mine That Bird and Giacomo. The other bit of history he will need to overcome is that not since 1961 (year Gretzky was born) has a horse from the 14 hole won the Derby (Carry Back). Training so so and is heating up in his works -- major negative for me. However, he has yet to lose and has done so in strong fashion save his last trip where he showed fight and held on to win. Note that his jock, Velazquez was injured in April and just returned to racing this week. He also has 2 of the highest Beyers in this edition.

16 - Orb (pictured below): 2 Weeks ago he was undoubtedly my selection as I felt he would come in slightly under the radar and get a better price by being 3 or 4 in wagers. However, he has trained flawlessly and is the Morning Line Favorite -- The Buzz has been insane. This horse reminds me of my 2009 choice Pioneerof the Nile (2nd) in its preps and approach. He impressed at Gulfstream which has a bias to front runners while he is a closer. Certainly has class in the pedigree and will easily cover the distance. Trainer Shug McGauhey need only the Derby to cap off a brilliant career. Jockey Rosario is the hottest in the nation having set a record for wins during Keeneland's spring meet (38). Funny thing is Velazquez passed on Orb for Verrazano. Perfect draw in the 16 hole 1st gate of the auxiliary gate. One knock is he has yet to have a 100 Beyer (97 best twice)

Race/Pace Set-up

Of note this year, graded stakes money was not used for entry to the first Saturday in May. Churchill incorporated a points system that worked well. It impacted early speed for this race as those who won 6 furlong races did not get higher points thus no Trinniberg (the speed demon who entered last year). That said, there are a number of horse that like to be at the front or stalk which will still make this a quick 1/4 and 1/2 in my humble opinion.

Sponsor

Time for the reveal. Important to disclose this year's sponsor, Grandma Vonnie's Cookies. Check out the web page at www.grandmavonnies.com and help a tremendous cause in fighting Alzheimer's.

Weather will play a factor as Saturday's forecast shows 80% rain for the Twin Spires. My selections will not be impacted with slop or fast track. No excuses here. Have not had a winner since 2008 (certainly feel like Tiger) and feel this year I will break through in a MAJOR way. Note that I have had two 2nd place finishers and thus have yielded solid returns. As I mentioned Orb was my selection two weeks ago. Since he will be the favorite I have elected to scratch that selection. Confident in my selection but have tremendous respect for Orb. Now being 40 am I becoming a wiser guy?? We will see at 3:26PT Saturday.

Riders Up! 2013 Selection