2006 Kentucky Derby
Well it's the first Saturday in May and with that comes one of my favorite two minutes of the year. The following is my analysis for this year's race.
No matter how you slice it, the 132nd running of the Grade 1, $2 million Kentucky Derby is deep in talent. Putting it one way, there are four Grade I winners, eight Grade 2 stakes winners and one Grade 3 stakes winner among the 20 that will enter the Derby starting gate. Of the dozen that have won either a Grade 1 or 2 race, it is easy to make a case for all 12, but for the sake of discussion I will eliminate some horses immediately from contention as they should be racing in a $15,000 claimer at Turfway (joking). This leads me to the conclusion that all inall this is going to be one of the most exciting editions of the Derby in memory.
Turfway/Canterbury Claimers
To begin, I will eliminate seven horses and they will not be involved in the discussion going forward.
12-Private Vow, 13-Bluegrass Cat, 14-Deputy Glitters, 15-Seaside Retreat, 16-Cause to Believe, 19- Storm Treasure, 20-Flashy Bull
Early Speed
Early speed is the key to this race. If the race goes out in :22 for the first quarter - the speed horses will fade as they head for home. If they go out in over :23 then we will have a War Emblem on our hands and Sinister Minister will win the 132nd Kentucky Derby. In my humble opinion this race has way too much early speed and the first quarter will be blazing, thus the following three horses will be at the frontas we head to the first turn and I have consequently eliminated these 3 from my pool of horses. Believe me I feel Sinister Minister is an amzing animal but this race does not set-up well fror him...the Preakness is a better fit, but he may be to blown out after this one.
3-Keyed Entry, 4-Sinister Minister, 9-Sharp Humor
My Giacomo for this year
Every year you need to a have a Giacomo selection. this year I have two interesting horses that fit this bill...I will put $5 ($10 total) to win on these horses, but know full well that this is like buying a lottery ticket. These horses are late closers, have run in bunched up fields (over 10) and will need their career best to win or be in the top 3 spots.
1-Jazil, 2-Steppenwolfer
Key Horses to the Race
Alright now that I have eliminated half the field and given you my Mint Julep Longshot lets focus on the final 8. I am mentioning these in post order.
5-Point Determined
Classy owners (Bob and Beverly Lewis-Bob passed away earlier this year) 6 career startes with 2 wins and a Beyer of 103. Sire is Point Given and who's dad was Thunder Gulch (95 Derby winner). Race sets up well for this colt as he hangs off the pace and rates well
6-Showing Up
Funny Cide's trainer (Barclay Tagg - close to my heart). 3 career starts all at age 3. All Derby winners have raced as 2 year olds. Mr Prospector in lineage. Solid Beyer with a high of 100. Scary horse that I will not play.
7-Bob and John
Owner is Bob McNair, yes the guy who drafted Mario Williams. 9 career starts with 4 wins. Beyer of 102. Wood Memorial winner. Seeking the Gold and Mr. Prospector in lineage. The Wood not as good as past.
8-Barbaro
The trainer was in Iowa Plane Crash and saved lives. 5 career starts with 5 wins. 103 Beyer. All races have been in traffic. Dynaformer is father. All races Track and Speed Vairants rate highest among Derby hopefuls. This year's Smarty Jones. My pick to win the 132nd Kentucky Derby.
10-A.P. Warrior
Trainer was Giacomo's. 8 career starts with 3 wins. 101 Beyer. Stalker off the pace which sets up well here. Great sire in AP Indy with AP's dad being Seattle Slew.
11-Sweetnorthernsaint
Gelding...look at Funny Cide...only gelding in over 75 years to win Derby. 6 career starts with 3 wins. 109 Beyer in last. Since gelded has not lost. Lineage not your typical Derby hopeful. Very impressive horse who raced in traffic and excelled.
17-Lawyer Ron
Owner suddenly died in February and was sold for $6 million thursday. 14 career starts with 7 wins. 106 Beyer. Heavily raced. Races to date slow pace. Danzig in lineage. Tough Post.
18-Brother Derek
His silks(NBC Peacock) are not a product placement by NBC. 8 career starts with 6 wins. 108 Beyer. Morning line fave and very impressive. Alydar in lineage. Tough post and will be battling Lawyer ron out of the gate. If he wins he is truly deserving and an incredible horse.
My Selections and Betting Strategy
1. Barbaro 2. Sweetnorthernsaint 3. AP Warrior 4. Point Determined
My betting strategy has yet to be officially determined but suffice it to say it will involve these 4 horses. My exotics may include Brother Derek and Steppenwolfer in some way and what price Brother Derek goes off at.
My bets will include but not limited to the following:
WPS - Barbaro
Long Shot W - Jazil and Steppenwolfer
Show: Sweetnorthernsaint, AP Warrior and Point Determined
Exacta: Box of 4 horses
Trifecta: There may be a wheel with Barbaro
Superfecta: whtere may be a wheel with Barbaro
Bear in mind if there is a scratch that could change my thinking in a few ways. Good luck and have fun!!!
