The Super Bowl of the equine world is upon us as the first Saturday in May has arrived for the 138th running of the Kentucky Derby. This episode features colts born the same year (2009) as Elisabeth our soon to be three year old (going on 25). In horse parlance Elle would already have celebrated her birthday party (January 1st). Busy is an understatement as Hillary and I recently closed on an off market home (fortunate) in essentially the hottest housing market in the country (Menlo Park). Thank you Facebook. Our Eichler is 1.9 miles from Zuck’s new office digs and nine doors from the garage where Google was born while Pinterest investors are a long Par 5 from our backyard. Coaching James' T-Ball has been a blast following in my Dad's coaching footsteps. Crazy it's been 8 years since Hillary and I were last at the Derby (Smarty Jones).
Which colt will be draped with the garland of roses in what many view as the most competitive Derby in a decade? Interestingly the grland was introduced eighty years ago when Burgoo King (visions of "Creey King" dancing through paddock) won the 58th running. Prior to sorting through this year's crop, a tribute to Hillary's Grandma Betty who died in March. Grandma Betty's method of betting on the grey horse (two this year with 8-Creative Cause and BC Juvenile Champ 14-Hansen) may be a wise exacta box to honor her.
Wonderlics aside, onto the "Kiperesque" process to selecting this year's choice.
Expensive Party Ticket ($50,000 Entry Fee) – THROW OUTS (8 Horses)
Owners of these entries are here for the Brownstable Brown party and the cache to say with a puffed out chest “I owned a Derby horse.” Do not even consider a win ticket with these names. 
THREATS – Must eliminate from contention that could win (5 Horses)
11-Alpha: Outstanding Pedigree. Improving, 11th BC Juvenile, Trouble with gate and will load first. Shades (small shades) of ’03 Derby winner Funny Cide w/ Wood trip.
14-Hansen: 1st BC Juvenile, 1st Gotham. Speedster, pace hurts. Just do not see it.
18-Sabercat: Training excellent. Hasn't demonstrated the class of others. Pace suits closing style that is only reason listed here.
19-I'll Have Another: Solid Pedigree. Tough draw for horse who like to be at front. Will certainly get the infield money.
CONTENDERS (7 Horses)
4-Union Rags: 1st Fountain of Youth, 2nd BC Juvenile. Follows in the footsteps of Barbaro (Riders Up! Selection) from Mike Matz. Training very well with bullet work on April 28th. Will he get a clean trip? Has gotten into trouble in the past -- Derby is known for its traffic but this horse is bred to get the distance. Strong possibilities.
5-Dullahan: 1st Blue Grass, 4th BC Juvenile. Better suited to Polytrack/Turf. Pace suits style reminiscent of Riders Up Selection Ice Box two years ago -- Deep Closer. Dosage greater than 4.00 is a major concern (distance could play factor).
6-Bodemeister: Undoubtedly the class of the Derby. 1st Arkansas Derby. Did not run as a 2 year old -- last to win Derby without racing at age 2 was Apollo in 1882 (yes 1882 in 2:40.0 essentially going backwards). Counter argument is that he has drilled 26 times which may have created a foundation that his experience points to lacking. Bounce possibility having raced 3 weeks ago and will be 5th start of year improving in each. Ran bullet work on April 29. Has had 3 names in short life landing on current name after Bob Baffert's 7 year old son, Bode. Only Triple Crown chance.
10-Daddy Nose Best: 1st Sunland Derby. Shhh! Not much has been discussed about this one but seems to be on the fringe (top 3 or 4) of all experts radar. Very seasoned and switched from the turf which proved savvy by Asmussen. Riders Up 1995 selection Thunder Gulch in Pedigree. Training well and sitting on a big race as third on this surface after switch from turf. Pace sets up well with style and will load last.
15-Gemologist: 5 starts 5 wins -- but not receiving as much pub as the others. Coming off bullet work. Well drawn in the 1st auxiliary gate which should assist with style of towards the front. Pletcher trained. Has caught my eye this week but if pace is super hot it concerns me with running style.
16-El Padrino: 1st Risen Star. Risen Star took some out of this colt but has demonstrated to be solid besides last out. Has not been training well and seems unsettled heading into Saturday. Nonetheless, a quality horse whose style and post may set up well.
Race/Pace Set-up
For some unknown reason, Trinniberg, is entered. This horse has never run further than 7 furlongs and is a speed demon; he may possibly set a ¼ and ½ speed record. There also seems to be many other horses that enjoy taking the lead which may set-up for a blistering pace. Imperative to envision the race to determine my choice. Look forward to Larry Collmus' call.
Homework is complete and now it is time for the reveal. Couple of quick items, what were you doing on Tuesday March 3, 2009? That day my top 2 selections were born. Further clues are the tremendous impact my Dad has had on my life and is my role model. Back in February he had his third hip replacement (same hip and kuds to my Mom for being there every step of the way). This Friday marks the first time he will play golf since the surgery. A tremendous accomplishment and testament to his commitment during rehab. Couple that with my first trip to Churchill Downs in 1995 as I was completing my senior year at Notre Dame when the aforementioned Thunder Gulch won in riveting style -- nice payday for a college kid. This fall my closest buddy's from Notre Dame will be headed to Ireland for golf and Notre Dame Football (not expecting much again this year given their schedule) to celebrate our 40th birthdays. All tie-ins to the name aside, this year’s selection has the pedigree, pace setup and is ready for a big race. My betting strategy will be my normal WPS, exacta, trifecta and superfecta with combination of the following. Have a great Derby.
Riders Up! 2012 Derby Selection
"Riders Up! See You in the Winner's Circle."
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