Onto my analysis. My posts leading up have plenty of fodder, so let's jump right in.
Race News
With Uncle Mo's defection and Robby Albarado injured, John Velazquez becomes rider for Animal Kingdom.
Zero Consideration -- Throw Outs (5 Horses)
These horses are better off watching from the infield or running in a claimer at Canterbury.
Not going to Be Bo"rails" year; Too much Pirate Booty for Stay Thirsty (look at Jock's pants); Comma to the Top most likely will be leading at 1/4 pole in speed duel; Pants on Fire just not talented enough.
Threats (3 Horses)
(2) Brilliant Speed: 5 years after Barbaro's epic Derby win, his father (Dynaformer) has a participant. Shows closing ability and the fact Keeneland preps have had a knack for getting into the money. One to consider.(11) Master of Hounds: Tremendous Pedigree with Raise a Native Line, Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer. Possibility of a hangover from the Royal Wedding having just shipped in from the UK. By the way, congrats to Duke and Duchess of Cambridge. No Euro horse has ever won.
(14) Shackleford: Will be one of the front runners...I just think the pace will be way too hot. Did have a blow out drill that I view highly in my prep.
(1) Archarcharch: Training flawlessly with bullet work (love bullets prior to Derby) and a second work that was not even expected to be timed. Trend he must beat is the 1 hole (killed Lookin At Lucky last year. 25 years since 1 hole had a winner with Ferdinand (1986) and the Shoe up at age 54. Jockey is married to trainer's daughter and is 50 years old. Raise a Native lineage has won 8 of past 11, 11 of past 16 and 14 of past 24. Before the Post Position draw, he was my pick.
(8) Dialed In: Reminds me of my selection last year (same connections and same style-deep closer), but will be the favorite -- so is there value? Strong pedigree and gets the distance. Trend to beat is not since 1918 (Exterminator) has a horse won Derby with only 4 preps. Is Dialed In a Cubs fan?
(13) Mucho Macho Man: Has been the most consistent horse and run in deep fields. Pedigree provides enough stamina and class. Trend for him to beat is the long layoff of 5+ weeks which Barbaro eclipsed in 2006. Prior to Barbaro it had been 50 years since a Derby horse accomplished that feat.
(15) Midnight Interlude: Baffert did not run as a 2 year old thus one of the longest trends to hold must be broken. Not since 1882 (Apollo) has a Derby winner not run as a 2 year old. MI also has the 4 start trend to beat (1918 Exterminator). Certainly can get distance and starting to ramp.
(16) Animal Kingdom: Jockey change. Horse has the 4 start of 1918 (Exterminator) trend to overcome. Graham Motion has had a great year and may be depressed after Toby's Corner had to drop from consideration earlier this week. Can he make the distance is the question -- weaker pedigree.
(17) Soldat: Seems to be the wise guy selection. If it is real sloppy may give him consideration as has muddy history. Not sure if he can rate off this pace. Trend he must defeat is 94% of Derby winners have come in 1st, 2nd or 3rd place in last prep (Soldat 5th).
(19) Nehro: Has yet to win a major prep race of which 11 winners since 1980 have accomplished. Was 2nd in arguably the best prep race just coming up short on AAA at the wire -- race set up well and run distance saving race compared to winner. Tremendous pedigree but dosage (for those who still use) is above the 4.00 trend with a 4.33.
My analysis tells me this will be somewhat of a speed duel upfront with quite a bit of early speed. This sets up for a vintage Derby run as those front runners most likely won't sustain for 1 1/4 miles. Off pace and closers then come into play. No matter what avoiding trouble is key with 19 horses.
Riders Up! 2011 Selection My action will be with twinspires.com this year.
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| Riders Up! 2011 Selection Sponsor |
This year's selection is based on the pace of the race I anticipate coupled with the feeling this horse is steadily improving and at the top of his game. Trends have been discussed during my prior posts and throughout this one. Will the Cubs ever win the World Series, let alone return. Trends are made to be broken and this year another one will fall -- hopefully it is this one. The selection may be called out by others and I respect that, but my track record speaks for itself. In life you need to take risks and I have gone against the trend in the past with success. This year the "dreaded" 1-hole will become loved. I say this with a fast or sloppy track.
Before my selection, my beloved family have made their selections. Hillary and James both had Uncle Mo given a connection between James (age 4) and Mo. Both had gastro issues recently -- James spent three days in the hospital. Upon learning of the scratch, Hillary has since changed her pick to Dialed In (not knowing he was the favorite) due to being in Silicon Valley and being connected. My soon to be 2 year old daughter, Elisabeth, is going with Archarcharch solely based on her favorite word, "puur-ple" -- which happens to be AAA's silk color. Note, she has me wrapped around her fingers.
Riders Up! 2011 Derby Selection
*Note: the wiseguys say if it is raining go with Soldat. In the case of rain, I do concur and would move up higher into my betting strategies. Undoubtedly, I am staying with Archarcharch and look forward to new race announcer, Larry Collmus, shouting that name as it heads down the stretch. Shout out to former announcer, Tom Durkin -- what a run. Have an excellent Derby 2011 and thank you for reading.
Happy Mother's Day!
"Riders Up! See You in the Winner's Circle."
