2024 Kentucky Derby Selection – Derby 150
The 150th Kentucky Derby marks my 26th instance pontificating and prognosticating on the fastest two minutes in sports. It’s mind boggling that it has been 20 years since I last traveled to the 502 visiting the venerable Twin Spires on the first Friday and Saturday of May. That needs to change for 2025 (who's in?) especially after the $200MM paddock renovation where My "Old" Kentucky Home would be in the Woodford Reserve Paddock Club and well positioned to hear this forum’s namesake “Riders Up!” ahead of the Derby.
Several life changes have occurred since the prior chapter in this compendium of picks. My mom has courageously battled Dementia/Alzheimer’s for the past 7 years. In October, as a family, we made a difficult decision to move her into Long Term Memory Care. She has received tremendous support while in outstanding physical condition. It has been an adjustment for my dad, now living on his own while visiting her daily – their love for one another sets the example -- Now Dad watch the sugar!! I have made 9 trips back to Minnesota since October to take some of the care burden off my sister, Tracy, and brother, Jason. Both have been true champions throughout supporting my parents. Life is about staying positive while playing the hand dealt.
Special cheers to Tracy who was married on New Year’s Eve to “Jeff S” (as my mom says). Thrilled to welcome Jeff and his daughter, Bri, officially to the family. A natural fit with The Hasselmans as they both golf – quite well too. Speaking of golf, my game has been in shambles since my good friend, Sean Mangan, placed an Ian Baker Finch hex during our first Notre Dame Boys Trip in Myrtle Beach. Much more to that story. We’ve had 21 trips dating back to 1997after an idea proposed by Kentucky’s own Craig Allen. Gents, who’s planning 22, Not It. Another callout to Notre Dame teammate and dear friend John Rushin who's dad, Don, recently died after a tremendous life. I cannot wait for the reality series centered on him now that Curb Your Enthusiasm has wrapped. Many memories including ND Father-Son Golf with the Rushins, Bohmers, and Soderlings (also a thought for Bruce Soderling).
James and Elle continue to grow up way too quickly chasing their dreams. Time is our most precious commodity, and I am trying to soak in as much of it as I can before they are able to vote. They continue to thrive in their own way. James is finishing his Junior year in high school while Elle is completing her Freshman campaign. Last summer we journeyed to Washington DC to strengthen their understanding of our great country’s history. Fortunate to also take individual trips with both. James and I headed to LA to watch Messi play and dine on fabulous food, two of his passions. Elle and I made a memorable voyage to NYC where she was able to take in The Met, The Plaza, The Rock, and also partake in sublime cuisine. This summer we are spending time in Rome (on to Ancient History with both kids), Germany (Euro 2024 Soccer Championships with James), and London (checking in on the Princess of Wales with Elle).
In June and after 6.5 years at “a tiny book company” as the “other Jeff” I left AWS and my role as Global Head of Web3 to become President at Blockdaemon, a venture-backed blockchain infrastructure company. After 5 months decided to leave to focus on my parents, spend more time with my kids, and return my professional attention to helping blockchain BUIDLers. Today, I am happily advising and investing in blockchain startups on my own while also speaking at crypto conferences. Recently attending Paris Blockchain Week (where I went on a date with Mona Lisa – she was not very talkative and Van Gogh rose from the ashes to do one more portrait) and then Dubai (where the biggest floods in 75 years hit, also hung out at Godolphin Headquarters and Meydan Racecourse prepping for Riders Up!).
The last year has been very good. I thank God for all those in and who have entered my life. Travel continues to be a core tenet. Few more callouts since we last gathered, F1 Vegas Paddock was sensational (Hi Brad Pitt, Michael Phelps, Shaun White, Steve Aoki, Veronika Rajek, and more), U2 at the Sphere was a treat (yes I should have residency in Vegas if not for tax purposes), and 18 at Pine Valley thanks to good friend David Bickford from CoinDesk and alongside another good friend and Web3’s younger Gary Player, Adam Lee. Ok, with 26th selection of the Kentucky Derby, Riders Up selects…
Race Thoughts
Occasionally the crop of sophomore runners lacks talent. The overall field is certainly off for the 150th Run for the Roses. There have been only 3 100+ Beyer Speed figures run this year. That said one horse clearly has been the most dominant having 2 of those 3 100+ Beyers, 17 Fierceness (110, 105). Fierceness best is 9 better than 3 Mystik Dan’s 101. Since 1980 only one time has the Derby winner not run a 100 Beyer. 12 of 20 entrants' best Beyer is 91 (yes 91) or lower thus a massive jump for them or the race completely falls apart for many of them to be in the equation.
Unfortunate that Churchill Downs extended Bob Baffert’s suspension another year. Baffert is an all-time trainer, most Derby wins, and would have had a solid runner in Muth (winner of Arkansas Derby) among others to improve the quality of this field. It's like the NFL without Belichick. The California crop is noticeably weaker as the Santa Anita Derby winner, 18 Stronghold, had an appalling 89 speed figure. There are trainers with the same drug infraction, the legal steroid Betamethasone, that received $500 fines and then allowed to race again. Hope to see his horses in 2025.
Soon we will see an invasion of Japanese champions winning more elite American races. 1991 Derby Winner Sunday Silence had softer breeding sales and eventually was purchased and moved to Japan breeding horses. His son, Deep Impact, is building quite a resume and this year is grandsire to 11 Forever Young. Would not surprise me if he won, however trends say otherwise as Forever Young won the UAE Derby at Meydan. UAE Derby runners are 0-19. Last Year Derma Sotogake finished 6th in the Derby. Placing would be an achievement. Queue Rod Stewart.
A nod to John Velazquez and his 26th Derby which is in harmony to Riders Up selections. Just so happened to be my college jersey number too.
Race Pace
Determining pace scenarios is critical to identifying prospective top finishers. After post position draw, it is unquestioned that 1 Dornoch will need to fire out of the gate to avoid the squeeze as horses come to the rail to save ground into the first turn. Along with him are 12 Track Phantom (wearing blinkers which tends to make horses run faster) and 8 Just a Touch. After the defection of 9 Encino, it shuffles favorite 17 Fierceness to 16 hole and out of the 17 hole curse where an anomaly that no horse has won from that post. I see him being 4 wide in 1st turn just off the pace. I expect 22+:, 45+: for the times which benefits closers mindful they need to navigate a minefield of horses to have a clean trip heading to the wire.
THE FIELD for the 150th KENTUCKY DERBY
Toss (7 Horses + 1 Scratch + 1 Also Eligible)
PP | Horse | S– W – P – S | $ | Style/Beyer | TimeForm | Dosage/Strikes |
5 | Catalytic | 3-1-2-0 | $216k | Speed 90 | 11114 | 3.00 1 (2) |
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10 | T O Password | 2-2-0-0 | $163k | Mid -- | 10221 | 1.00 3 (1,3,7) |
13 | West Saratoga | 10-2-5-1 | $460k | Mid 85 | 11016 | 3.00 1 (4) |
15 | Domestic Product | 5-2-1-0 | $314k | Mid 87 | 10122 | 3.00 1 (3) |
16 | Grand Mo the First | 6-2-0-4 | $215k | Mid 87 | 10917 | 1.22 2 (2,3) |
20 | Society Man | 5-1-1-1 | $197k | Closer 87 | 10917 | 3.80 2 (2,8) |
21 | Epic Ride | 5-2-2-1 | $253k | Speed 90 | 1165 | 1.40 3 (1,2,4) |
22 | Mugatu (AE) | 12-1-1-3 | $80k | Mid 87 | 10719 | 3.00 0 |
Factors – Cuts (5 Horses)
PP | Horse | S– W – P – S | $ | Style/Beyer | TimeForm | Dosage/Strikes |
1 | Dornoch | 6 -3-2-0 | $552k | Speed 91 | 1146 | 2.50 0 |
6 | Just Steel | 11-2-4-1 | $725k | Mid 95 | 1183 | 4.00 2 (2,3) |
12 | Track Phantom | 7-3-2-1 | $405k | Speed 94 | 11213 | 2.20 1 (4) |
14 | Endlessly | 6-5-0-0 | $707k | Mid 91 | 1138 | 3.60 0 |
18 | Stronghold | 6-3-3-0 | $827k5 | Mid 89 | 1138 | 3.00 0 |
Contenders (8 Horses)
PP | Horse | S– W – P – S | $ | Style/Beyer | TimeForm | Dosage/Strikes |
2 | Sierra Leone | 4-3-1-0 | $918k3 | Closer 98 (3) | 1164 | 2.00 1 (3) |
3 | Mystik Dan | 6-2-1-1 | $641k | Mid 101 (2) | 1138 | 3.00 0 |
4 | Catching Freedom | 5-3-0-1 | $877k4 | Closer 97 (4) | 11213 | 5.67 1 (3) |
7 | Honor Marie | 5-2-2-0 | $526k | Closer 96 | 11114 | 3.24 1 (3) |
8 | Just a Touch | 3-1-2-0 | $282k | Speed 96 | 1202 | 3.57 3 (2,4,7) |
11 | Forever Young | 5-5-0-0 | $2.1M1 | Mid -- | 10520 | 3.00 0 |
17 | Fierceness | 5-3-0-1 | $1.7M2 | Speed 110 (1) | 1241 | 5.00 1 (4) |
19 | Resilience | 6-2-1-1 | $495k | Mid 90 | 11213 | 3.50 2 (4,6) |
2 – Sierra Leone reminds me of a better bred 2010 Riders Up Selection Ice Box that was a deep closer and was able to navigate traffic finishing 2nd. Third race off a layoff (I love). Can Sierra weave his way through traffic down the stretch as he will be flying?
3 – Mystik Dan a Long Shot special? With 1 of the 3 100 Beyers in the preps. I say why not. Will a a clean trip will be there? It’s the Derby so that is always the question.
4 – Catching Freedom is a deep closer like Sierra Leone. Excellently bred with 2009 Riders Up Selection Pioneerof the Nile who finished second as his Dam’s sire. Certainly improving. Longer layoff similar to 2006 Riders Up Selection Barbaro’s 7 Weeks ahead of his Derby Win.
7 – Honor Marie is 1 of the 2 Wise Guy selections. Improving steadily. Third off a layoff.
8 – Just a Touch is a Brad Cox runner who did not run as a two-year-old so raises foundation questions. His Father Justify did just that in 2018 erasing 136 year Apollo curse. Has been strong and one could argue ran a better race than Sierra Leone in Bluegrass finishing 2nd.
11 – Forever Young has many curses against it here. That said there is a lot to like and could be that first Japanese Triple Crown champion.
17 – Fierceness Simply the best in the field. That said, has had 2 clunkers in his 5 races. Pletcher only has 1 entrant so all attention here. Third off a layoff. Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Champion. Last year owner Mike Repole the morning of race had to scratch the prohibitive favorite and what would have been Riders Up Selection Forte. Is there Redemption as he seeks the elusive (to date) Derby?
19 – Resilience is another Wise Guy Selection. Must make a massive jump to win.
2024 Riders Up Selection
17 Fierceness
After starting 5 of 6 Derby winner selections (other was 3rd) then 8 of 15 (with 4 in the money), Riders Up selections has hit a cold streak not finding a winner and only 4 in the money since 2013 winning with Orb - I selected two horses that year as Orb was the post-time favorite (my other selection ran 3rd). No right minded handicapper can simply pick the favorite, right? Interesting as that year was the beginning of the new Derby Points System. Since then 6 of 11 (54%) of favorites have won the Derby with favorite winning 6 races in a row 2013-2018. Since 2019 the post-time favorite has finished 4th, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd. In The Money. There is one horse that is undoubtedly the best in the field, so its all about the KISS principle this year. Keep It Simple Stupid.
Position | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Owner |
Win | 17 Fierceness | Velazquez | Pletcher | Repole Stable |
Place | 11 Forever Young | Sakai | Yahagi | Susumu Fujita |
Show | 8 Just a Touch | Geroux | Cox | Qatar Racing |
4th | 2 Sierra Leone | Gafflione | Brown | Magnier, Tabor |
5th Long Shot | 3 Mystik Dan | Hernandez | McPeek | 4 G Racing |
6th | 7 Honor Marie | Curtis | Beckman | Ribble Farms |
7th | 4 Catching Freedom | Prat | Cox | Albaugh Family |
8th | 19 Resilience | Alvarado | Mott | Emily Bushnell |
Riders Up! See You in the Winner's Circle.
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