The annual meeting of colts entering the gate is upon us again. The 142nd is the longest continuous American sporting event always increases my adrenaline. This year we are coming off a Triple Crown and even better racing's version of the Grand Slam! American Pharoah ignited the nation with his run through the Triple Crown and onto the Breeder's Cup. Will we see back to back much like Seattle Slew/Affirmed? Give me odds and I'll go heavy against. This year's crop of 22,713 three year old horses vying to run the mile and a quarter and go down in immortality seem to have a lingering Triple Crown hangover. The speed figures are telling as 11 of 13 preps have been much slower than last year. Ponder that last year's Big 6 preps had an average Beyer of 102.8 vs this years field sporting 94.6.
This year marks the ten year anniversary of Riders Up selection Barbaro crushing the field on his way to the Winner's Circle. Stalking the lead around the oval in quick fractions and ultimately turning on the jets at the mile pole to bring home the coveted trophy. Tragically his quest for the Triple Crown ended on the stretch at Pimlico during the Preakness three short weeks later.
Before discussing this year's selection, Rider's Up! has become my annual Christmas Card. Special mention to Mom (Happy Mother's Day!) and Dad (Happy Early Birthday!). You are the best role models. Thank you for connecting me to horse racing and our visits to the paddock and winner's circle with Super Count at Canterbury. Love you.
Elle continues to develop her craft as a comedic genius craft at 6 years old. I need to develop a YouTube Channel with the premise of her asking Siri or Alexa questions (Apple, Amazon happy to discuss an endorsement agreement). Elle is constantly glued to anything on HGTV (Chip and Joanna shout out) or Liv and Maddie on Disney Jr.
Memories. The Masters has always been dear to my heart in great part thanks to my Dad. It was touching to introduce James to Augusta National as he took his maiden stroll on those hallowed grounds hanging with Arnold Palmer, Tom Watson, Jordan, Rickie, Rory, Dustin, Justin and a newcomer in Bryson during Tuesday's practice round. We spent time on the range watching Danny Willet not miss a shot (thank you Draft Kings - Winners). A bonus dinner with Dan and Becky Gutrich while crossing paths with Tom Watson at Augusta gem Rhinehardt's. Dan and Becky are en fuego with bucket list trips this year as they will be at Churchill. James continues to love soccer and spends an inordinate amount of time honing his GM skills with Madden and FIFA. Absolutely love it!
Hailing from Minnesota, I'll add to the endless Prince tributes. My first concert ever was December 27, 1984 at St. Paul Civic Center seeing Prince Purple Rain. Yes I was 11. Certainly had to be a parenting mistake at the time but since my cousin was briefly Rogers Nelson's body guard, Mom and Dad scored the tickets for free and now looks Steve Jobesque for their vision. If you have time, this is a gem (
Purple Rain Recording) on August 3, 1983 when Purple Rain was recorded live at First Avenue.
Cue Bruce Springsteen, the St. Paul Civic Center played a prominent role in my adolescence. The venue hosted the Minnesota State High School Hockey Tournament before dying by way of wrecking ball to build the home of the Wild. Similar to basketball in Indiana, football in Texas/Ohio, it is the preeminent hockey tournament. 25 years ago, I was blessed to lift the Championship trophy with my teammates in what was the last single tournament where all teams (no matter school size) competed for one championship. Cool to be a trivia question answer, scoring the final goal and empty netter with :10 remaining in a 5-3 win over Duluth East "Grey"hounds (
HM 1991 State Champions). Jokingly the tournament has now become more synonymous with flow of Hockey Hair. Even ESPN and Barry Melrose are getting in on the act with an E:60 airing this week. Check this out
Minnesota 2016 All Hockey Hair Team
Election Year. Trump or Hillary? Those five words were too many for this column. Okay onto why you're really reading and see if we can add a W-2G to your 2016 tax return.
Derby Selection
In researching this year's Derby, I cannot remember a year where it is this wide open coming in with everyone knocking the favorite. Granted we have been on a string of favorites winning the past three years (Orb, California Chrome and AP). Nyquist named after the Red Wing is this year's unquestioned favorite -- easy money that Eddie O goes this route in his selection. Big question is can Nyquist get the distance which in my opinion makes this race fun to handicap and seemingly increasing the possibility seeing an inebriated college kid in the infield cash a monster superfecta ticket (Snapchat, YouTube viewers be ready). On top of that you will see four grey colts in this race (Creator, Lani, Destin, Mohayman).
Like to acknowledge DRF Derby Clocker Mike Welsch who provides solid daily insight with the workouts. Others to call out are Jon White (XpressBet), Matt Bernier (DRF), Dan Illman (DRF), Jay Privman (DRF) and www.chef-de.com.
Toss
 |
| 1 Trojan Horse |
 |
| 4 Mo Tom |
 |
| 6 My Man Sam |
 |
| 8 Lani |
 |
| 7 Oscar Nominated |
 |
| 12 Tom's Ready |
 |
| 16 Shagaf |
None of these equines will be on my parimutuel wagers. Lani is intriguing as he has run the mile and quarter but is so unpredictable -- watch him in the gate. Trojan Horse is named for a college grad from USC and has yet to win a race -- talk about an unreal story to win for first time coming out of the dreaded 1 hole. My Man Sam and Shagaf have both been training well just do not think they have it. Both Mo Tom and Tom's Ready are New Orleans Saints owner Tom Benson's horses (Think he likes the name Tom).
Threat - Need to Eliminate
 |
| 9 Destin |
 |
| 10 Whitmore |
 |
| 18 Majesto |
 |
| 19 Brody's Cause |
 |
| 20 Danzing Candy |
These 5 colts all have pluses and knocks to their Derby chances. Destin is intriguing however he has not raced in over 8 weeks and has not run more than a mile and sixteenth. This is significant and reason for demotion (he easily could mess up the exotics). Danzing Candy will be first at the quarter and most likely the half and could pull off a War Emblem if pace is not hot. Brody's Cause was certainly the most affected by the post position.
Contenders
 |
| 2 Suddenbreakingnews |
 |
| 3 Creator |
 |
| 5 Gun Runner |
 |
| 11 Exaggerator |
 |
| 13 Nyquist |
 |
| 14 Mohayman |
 |
| 15 Outwork |
 |
| 17 Mor Spirit |
Narrowed down to a more workable number.
- 2 Suddenbreakingnews is a deep closer that may be forwardly placed. Receiving some buzz for exotics.
- 3 Creator is part of Steve Asmussen stable who recently was elected to Hall of Fame and is missing this key jewel. Is Creator the one?
- 5 Gun Runner Another Asmussen horse will need to step up. His running style may be well suited with this race. Training strong
- 11 Exaggerator has a solid body of work. Many think his Santa Anita was overrated given the slop and perfect race setup and thus has been knocked but is Morning Line 2nd choice.
- 13 Nyquist is the favorite and has done everything right leading up to the Derby with 7 wins. The big question is does his pedigree provide for a classic distance. That will be one of the intriguing questions in this race.
- 14 Mohayman was the likely favorite until a bad outing when Nyquist won and Mohaymen slid to 4th on an off track. Not sure Mohayman is progressing and the way he has been training may be forward pressed thus being knocked but still talented.
- 15 Outwork has been one of the works stars and receiving buzz on the backside.
- 17 Mor Spirit is coming out of the statistical anomaly that no one has won with PP 17. Interesting side note is he could not beat maiden stable mate Jimbo Fallon. Ironically Jimmy Fallon had his annual puppy race and Mor Spirit won (Jimmy Fallon 2016 Puppy Derby)
Pace Setup
Pace has been discussed in great length. The prep races all had early speed breaking down late. That set up the path for closers to pick up the majority of points needed to gain entry and leave much of the speed horses out of the running. Prior to Post Position Draw, I was in that camp thinking Nyquist, Mohayman, Mor Spirit and even Gun Runner were looking solid. Things changed as miraculously all the closers were in the lower PPs with the early and tactical speed placed for the most part outside. Danzing Candy will certainly make a bee line for the first turn. Outwork, Nyquist will be forwardly placed. I do think that Mohayman and Mor Spirit will go out faster than normal given their PPs and some others may push forward to avoid the traffic. Meanwhile the closers will all save ground with inside post. I think the pace may be quicker than anticipated. If fractions are faster than 23.1 and 46.4 then this brings the closers into play. If slower than that those horses forwardly placed are in good position.
Riders Up! 2016 Kentucky Derby Selection
Triple Crown hangover is in full effect as this year's crop is below par. Do we follow the recent trend of favorites, I'm going against Nyquist. My pace scenario is faster differing from many experts expressing a moderate pace taking place. It's not quite to this level, but this race has a feeling of Riders Up! selection Ice Box 2nd in 2010 when Super Saver won. Ice Box picked horses off in the last half and nearly pulled off the win. The winner will be determined by the pace setup plain and simple. We could see a War Emblem type if fractions are slower and Danzing Candy goes wire to wire or we could see a Barbaro type race with Nyquist winning. My pace thesis sets up well for closers who save ground. Creator is training strong, has classic distance in pedigree, primed for his best outing yet all while demonstrating an innate ability to maneuver through larger fields. My guess is he passes Nyquist at the top of the stretch. Furthermore, his namesake (God) will be watching over him.
Betting strategy to be determined. Exotics will have Creator and Nyquist on top with some combinations of the others in my contenders list. Will update prior to race.
CREATOR
WIN
PLACE SHOW 4th
|
| 13 Nyquist |
| |
| 15 Outwork |
| |
| 11 Exaggerator |
OTHERS
|
| 2 Suddnbreakingnews |
|
| 17 Mor Spirit |
|
| 14 Mohayman |
|
| 5 Gun Runner |
Riders Up! See you in the Winner's Circle.
No comments:
Post a Comment