Derby 2007 Selection/Analysis
I must admit when it comes to the first Saturday in May, I get way too giddy. With that I welcome you to my annual Kentucky Derby Analysis. Suffice it to say the 133rd edition of the fastest two minutes in sports can be summed up with one question -- What is going to give? There are so many stats, jinxes, trends and other items when handicapping this annual festival of the finest equine 3 year olds. My history with this race has been pretty solid (6/8 winners missed 96, 97, 99 and 01 selections) dating back to picking the upset winner Thunder Gulch (paid $51 to win on a $2 bet – luckily I had more than $2 on him) at my first Derby in 1995 - Remember the Gulch. Bear in mind now that I have James my prep time has been cut into.
*1995 – Thunder Gulch
*1998 – Real Quiet
2000 – Fusiachi Pegusus
*2002 – Perfect Drift (War Emblem won as he was the only speed in the race). By the way Perfect Drift is now 8 and still performing he actually runs today just prior to the Oaks
*2003 – Funny Cide
*2004 – Smarty Jones
2005 – Bandini (was injured during race and retired 2 months after – Giacomo won but I fortunately did put $2 to win)
2006 – Barbaro (God Rest His Soul)
2007 - ?????
* - Races I attended
Remember that prior performance does not guarantee future results.
First, please bow to a wonderful horsewoman Her Majesty, Queen Elizabeth, as she attends her first Derby (not Dar-Bee).
Now that we have the formalities out of the way we can get on with this analysis. So what is going to give? Will it be The Beyer stat? Breeder’s Cup Juvenile jinx? No races as a 2 year old? Will Pletcher have the winner? My own Triple Crown trend? Let me say that I feel the crop this year is not quite as talented as year’s past as evidence in the prep races. That being said there may be one horse who becomes the superstar America looks to idolize. Which segues to a personal stat, that a horse captures the Triple Crown in the first running after an important birth. I was born in 1973 when the great Secretariat won the Triple Crown. My wife, Hillary, was born in 1978 when Affirmed completed the feat. Although my son was born in December 26, 2006 (Barbaro looked like a potential TC winner), his first viewing of the Derby will be tomorrow. So is there a Triple Crown winner in this group?
Let’s narrow the field – My favorite section of owners who risk the health of their horses just to say they ran in the Derby. Six horses to forget about (thus we are down to 14)
1 – Sedgefield, 4 – Storm in May, 5 – Imawildandcrazyguy, 9 – Liquidity, 10 – Teuflesberg, 11- Bwana Bull
Horses that have a reason they may be involved but since I need to reduce this field they fail to make my cut. Six More get the axe (thus now down to 8).
3 – Zanjero, 6 – Cowtown Cat (could be a sleeper for 2-4 spots), 13 – Sam P, 15 – Tiago (Giacomo’s Brother – by the way Giacomo has not won a race since his Derby win), 19 – Dominican and 20 – Great Hunter despite being Kenny Mayne’s pick
The final 8 in post order are 2 – Curlin, 7 – Street Sense, 8 – Hard Spun, 12 – Nobiz Like Shobiz, 14 – Scat Daddy, 16 – Circular Quay (pronounced Key) and 18 – Any Given Saturday (Tony D’Amato/Al Pacino)
Whenever I get to the Derby predictions I like to get it to 5 horses so I can play the Exacta, Tri and Super. I could not have predicted the 03 race with Funny Cide any better as I perfectly picked the top 5 horses and fortunately did not have to pay the mortgage for a few months even after Uncle Sam dug in. Bear in mind that Funny Cide broke a huge trend as he was a gelding and no gelding had won since 1929 when Clyde Van Dusen won. Thus again my them of what will give enters the discussion.
2- Curlin (Asmussen/Albarado) [Will be 2nd Favorite when it goes off]
The Morning Line favorite looks like an amazing horse yet his first trainer decided not to run him as a 2 year old, which I feel is critical to conditioning for the longest race to this point of his life. He has new connections after a $3.5 million purchase after his first race. Remember no horse with fewer than 4 starts has won the Derby since 1918 (yes Black Sox) – 29 have tried and failed. Furthermore no horse has won the Derby without racing as a 2yo since 1882 – 40 horses have tried since 1970 and failed.
7- Street Sense (Nafzger/Borel) [Will be favorite]
Street Sense has the dream post for this race, but the draw against him is the Breeders Cup Juvenile Jinx. No horse has won both races, in fact it is amazing that in the 23 years of the Breeder Cup Juvenile only 5 winners have even made it to the race. The best finish out of those is in the show position.
8 – Hard Spun (Larry Jones – 1st Derby/Pino) [Bud Long Shot]
This is my Budweiser Longshot to win. He will go off at a great price, but I feel the race sets up well for him due to lack of crazy speed and the fact that he set a world record in his last workout. The last 5 of last 8 Derby winners had bullet works prior to the Derby.
12 – Nobiz Like Shobiz (Tagg – Funny Cide’s Trainer/Velasquez, C) [Funny Cide set-up not quite the same/and I already have him on a bet]
In February he was my pick to click – I wagered on him in the future wager at a price of 8-1 and will pay me $188 on my $20 bet. I do not like as much as I did in February as he does not have the crucial component of a Beyer over 100 (but bear in mind this year’s crop is not as solid), but do have that bet going. Plus he has great breeding with Storm Cat and Go for Gin (gotta like that)
14 – Scat Daddy (Pletcher/E Prad – Barbaro’s Jock) [no 100 Beyer’s]
Like Nobiz he does not have a 100 Beyer which scares me a bit, but should be close when they hit the wire. He has soild seasoning and one to consider.
16 – Circular Quay (Pletcher/Velazquez J) [Can he get revenge on Street Sense form BC Juvenile]
Well remember way back at the beginning of this novel when I said who my first Derby horse was – Thunder Gulch. Well Circular is Thunder Gulch’s son and he is coming from the same post as daddy did in 1995. He has some seasoning and is one of the quintuplet Pletcher horses. I really think this is Pletcher’s year to break through as he got shut out at the Breeder’s Cup and this is redemption.
18 – Any Given Saturday (Pletcher/Gomez)
Prior to the post selection I was all for Tony D’Amato’s horse as he reminded me ever so much of Funny Cide although he still can become a stallion. In most years it would not pain me that he was coming form the 18 hole, but with lack of early speed that does not help his chances with his running style. He is the only horse who breaks none of my trend rules for the Derby.
Suffice it to say is this a Thunder Gulch (Circular Quay) or Funny Cide (Any Given Saturday) race in my mind? My heart says Any Given Saturday, but my betting will incorporate both and hopefully I will prevail.
This is a betting dream and nightmare at the same time as prices will be all over the place. So have a Mint Julep (mine will be a Tanqueray and Tonic) sit back and enjoy.
My bets
WPS - 16, 18
W - 8
Exacta - Key 16 & 18 w/ 2, 7, 12, 14, 16/18
Trifecta – Key 16 &18 w/ 2, 7, 12, 14, 16/18 w/ 2, 7, 12, 14, 16/18
Superfecta – same as Trifecta
Oaks/Derby Double - Rags to Riches with Circular Quay, Any Given Saturday
Horses I worry who will win and mess with my tickets – Curlin, Street Sense
Have a great Derby!
