'15

 

1995 Derby - Naturally I am holding the program/DRF

Like the azaleas at Augusta (well played Jordan), the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby has arrived. Does this rendition offer a similar thrashing of the field? This Derby marks a Riders Up milestone as 20 years ago I attended my first Derby. The road trip began on a Friday morning after a late Thursday evening from South Bend as the curtians on my senior year at Notre Dame were about to close. Wonderful memories from selecting the Derby winner, Thunder Gulch, to (thanks Chris Novogratz) hanging in the paddock for Race 8 (Humana Distaff) with Bo Derek, Leroy Neiman, Geraldo, Kato Kaelin (look him up) and then receiving catcalls from some Louisville locals who thought we were Pearl Jam (must have been the infield grunge look coupled with Dr Marten's working that day). Come to think of it, we really had the "10" thing going on for that 20 minutes. Fortunately I had a WPS and Exacta ticket cash when Thunder Gulch and -- you guessed it #10 Tejano Run ran 2nd. Needless to say I was forever hooked as it was an intoxicating party and that was the infield, thankfully I upgraded to the proper side of the track in future visits.


Saturday May 2nd is action packed with breakfast watching English Premier League, NFL Draft and who will be Mr. Irrelevant, NHL Playoffs, NBA Playoffs, Fastest two minutes in sports, WGC Golf in primetime at Harding Park (where I hack it around often) followed by Mayweather/Pacquiao. Wow, buckle your chinstraps and pour yourself a Tanqueray and Tonic or two!

Special shout out to my brother Jason and his girlfriend Jessica who are hanging at the Twin Spires this weekend. Rumor has it Jason is sporting a derby bowler lid to go with a suit. Not often he cleans up this well. Selfish plug but wonder if he rented the suit from The Black Tux www.theblacktux.com. Meanwhile my sister will most likely be hanging out at Canterbury playing the $5k claimers until the big show. Miss you guys. For those who read this annual compendium here's a quick update on my kids James (8) and Elle (5). James and his love of soccer remind me of hockey when I was his age. It is a blessing to watch him play. He is a walking soccerpedia regarding players from Bayern Munich, Dortmund (foreshadow??), Real Madrid, Barcelona, Man City and so forth. Meanwhile Elle continues to dream of knocking Giada off her pedestal on the Food Network while also playing right into the Silicon Valley stereotype by becoming a whiz on Minecraft building restaurants, hotels, parks -- fingers crossed her second language will be coding. Eternally grateful to be their father.

Speaking of Silicon Valley which is ripe with bubble discussions over valuations mixed in with the comical HBO show that is pulling no punches at poking fun to the ecosystem. Debates go on determining who each character is portraying or a mashup of players from Sand Hill Road. Can't wait for them to mix in infamous Thursday nights at the Rosewood. Anyone providing odds on Pied Piper becoming a unicorn?

Bitcoin and the blockchain are still in the foaling stage that could be moving to the yearling in the three to four years. It is what the internet was 20 years ago -- similar symptoms that included many negative events. Time will tell -- If interested in solid insight read The Age of Cryptocurrency. Who knows maybe someone will completely vault banking into something simple. With regards to technology, when was the last time you went a day let alone an hour (non-sleep) without checking your phone or now watch? Apple is crushing it with the 6/6 Plus, but do not rush out to buy the first model of Apple Watch wait for version 2.0 when it is not as thick (little local knowledge).

Before moving on need to acknowledge many people who guided me to make these selections and develop an affinity for playing the ponies. First my parents, they introduced me to horse racing at a young age and provided the thrill of smiling for a photo in the Winner's Circle on August 9, 1987 having watched Super Count bring home a thrilling 6 furlong victory in a $16k claimer beating Swerczek and Economic Growth with Kenny Hare up in 1:12. Then came back 13 days later to beat Bond Daddy.

Other acknowledgements to a number of horsemen that assist me in coming up with this selection. This year again special kudos to DRF Derby Clocker Mike Welsch, Dan Illman (DRF), Jay Privman (DRF), Mike Watchmaker (DRF), Matt Bernier (DRF), Jon White (XpressBet) and www.chef-de-race.com

The 141st running of the Derby looks to be one of the strongest in many years. Four or five horses would possibly have been favorites in previous Derbies. Immediately you notice that the prep races this year played true to form with no real shocking upsets. We had a scratch after the Post Positions were drawn Wednesday. Stanford (#11) scratched meaning Frammento (#21) joins the field. Think Stanford burned through their seed cash and could not find any Series A takers and decided to shut down. It's notable as Stanford most likely would have been gunning for the early lead.

***UPDATE*** Scratches are now El Kabeir (7), Stanford (11), International Star (12)

This year we have 7 horses to immediately toss. None will be on any of my tickets. Think Itsaknockout is focused on another event taking place at the MGM later that evening. Far Right coincidentally ended up as Far Right as he could until Stanford scratched so not quite all the way right.

After the first cut, 13 horses remain to vy for immortality. We need to continue to reduce the number. It's a deep year this year so I feel like Herb Brooks with the final cuts for the 1980 Olympic Team. You will notice a theme with who I have dropped when you see the race set-up. Note that I will most likely add some of these names to the 3 and 4 spots in the exotics.

Enter Michael Buffer. "Let's get ready to ruuumbbbble." On to the Main Event. Someone out of this crop will win the Garland of Roses and move to the Preakness to keep the Triple Crown alive. The buzz has been all about American Pharoah which is certainly deserved. There are a number of others that can contend. The post position impacted two horses (2) Carpe Diem and (3) Materiality. While the others are placed fine.

(2) Carpe Diem: Velazquez/Pletcher 8-1 Beyer 98, Dosage 1.88 (Dual Qualifier), Strikes 1

• SireLine: Northern Dancer -- Giant's Causeway (Storm Cat)
• Dam Line: Raise A Native -- Rebridled Dreams (Unbridled's Song)
• Earnings $1,519,800 5 starts 4-1-0 Blue Grass and Tampa Derby wins
• Unquestionably drew the worse of anyone -- certainly impacts. Last to win from 2 hole is our last Triple Crown winner Affirmed in 1978.



(3) Materiality: Castellano/Pletcher 12-1 Beyer 110, Dosage 2.33, Strikes 2

• Sire Line: Raise A Native -- Afleet Alex (Northern Afleet)
• Dam Line: Northern Dancer -- Wildwood Flower (Langfuhr)
• Earnings $656,028 3 Starts 3-0-0 Florida Derby
• Must overcome the not racing as 2 year curse. 1 and only time was in 1882 by Apollo. In that race Win paid $169.80 and was completed in 2:40.25 (1 1/2 Miles). Needless to say this is right up there with the Cubs -- my way to give a hat tip to big followers of Riders Up and ardent Cubs fans the LaFo brothers.
• Post hurts as he will be pressed to exert a lot of energy going into first turn. Do not think he has the foundation to get this distance with taxing early quarter/half.

(8) Dortmund: Garcia/Baffert 3-1 Beyer 106, Dosage 2.38 (Dual Qualifier), Strike 0

• Sire Line: Northern Dancer --Big Brown (Boundary)
• Dam Line: Northern Dancer -- Our Josephina (Tale of the Cat)
• Earnings $1,289,400 6 Starts 6-0-0 Santa Anita, San Felipe, RB Lewis
• Tactical speed which fits well with this race.
• Huge horse at 17 hands
• Love the Big Brown tie and could make dad the first Derby winner to sire a Derby winner.
• Training well.

(10) Firing Line: Stevens/Callaghan 12-1 Beyer 104 Dosage 3.00, Strikes 2

• Sire Line: Northern Dancer -- Line of David (Lions Heart)
• Dam Line: Turn-To -- Sister Girl Blues (Hold for Gold)
• Earnings $574,800 5 Starts 2-3-0 Sunland Derby
• Is less than a length from being undefeated losing to Dortmund twice.
• Will be overlooked by the betting public and is training quite well and this marks 3rd race off a layoff.

(15) Frosted: Rosario/McLaughlin 15-1 Beyer 103 Dosage 2.75 Strikes 1

• Sire Line: Bold Ruler -- Tapit (Pulpit)
• Dam Line: Northern Dancer -- Fast Cookie (Deputy Minister)
• Earnings$836,800 7 Starts 2-4-0 Wood Memorial
• Since Riders Up Selection Funny Cide's win in 2003. Wood Memorial starters are 0 for 23 in hitting the WPS at the Derby. Is that an aberration?
• Had minor throat procedure and aggressive training followed -- seems to have helped.

(18) American Pharoah: Espinoza/Baffert 5-2 Beyer 105 Dosage 4.33 Strikes 1

• Sire Line: Raise A Native -- Pioneerof the Nile (Empire Maker)
• Dam Line: Northern Dancer -- Littleprincessemma (Yankee Gentleman)
• Earnings $1,411,500 5 Starts 4-0-0 Arkansas Derby, Rebel
• Training lights out burning out 5F in :58 earlier this week (always a good sign Derby week).
• Has tremendous buzz. Cannot disagree with these comments.
• Dosage is really his only shortcoming. Since 2000 only two horses have won with Dosage greater than 4.00 (Giacomo and Mind That Bird). Note these were monsters long shots to win.
• Pioneerof the Nile was Riders Up Selection in 2009 that finished 2nd and AP grandpa Empire Maker finished 2nd to Funny Cide in 2003 but went on to win the Belmont ending Funy Cide's Triple Crown quest.

(19) Upstart: Ortiz/Moquett 15-1 Beyer 108 Dosage 3.00 Strikes 1

• Sire Line: Bold Ruler -- Flatter (A.P. Indy)
• Dam Line: Northern Dancer -- Party Silks (Touch Gold)
• Earnings$971,480 7 Starts 3-3-1 Fountain of Youth Holly Bull
• Recently had surgery which may have knocked him however his training has been sharp running a couple of recent bullets leading up to the race.

Running Styles

This year's race is different as so many horses like to be on the lead or just off. Obviously with 20 horses there will be a lot of traffic. With the defection of Stanford and the unfortunate placement of Materiality in the 3 hole the early speed may not be blistering which sets up well for those on the pace. Think that Materiality will need to show speed to avoid getting pinched as all the horses converge on the rail heading to the first turn. With American Pharoah coming out of the 18 hole, the thinking is he will get out comfortable so he is not very wide going into the first turn. Dortmund is placed in a nice spot especially given his size of 17 hands. Fractions will be :23.1 :46.8. If this is the case then American Pharoah and Dortmund will be positioned very well while the closers will have a tough time coming home as it is not a blistering pace.

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Rider Up 2015 Derby Selection





Anticipating an amazing race. Baffert is well positioned with American Pharoah who very well could contend for the Triple Crown especially with results and bullet works. Dortmund has done nothing wrong and continually improves Like his father he comes in undefeated. His tactical speed impresses with the shape of this race coupled with his size is strong. Kiper is salivating. Both horses will be on top of my exotics, but need to chose and thanks to a feeling for some time believe in the "less heralded" Dortmund.

DORTMUND (8)

"Riders Up! See You in the Winner's Circle."