2011 Derby Contender Running Styles

As my film sessions and research continue, I look to Jon Gruden for inspiration in the last hours before my annual selection.  Safe to say this race is wide open.  Critical to the race will be the pace.  Given the number of Usain Bolt's in this race I see a speed duel that will be favorable for stalkers and closers. 

Growing up playing sports I learned valuable lessons in visualization.  My hockey idol, Wayne Gretzky, always preached about visualization.  When he was a child, his Dad, Walter, would have him draw where the puck was going on a piece of paper as he watched a game.  Head watching TV with pencil drawing on paper. This exercise taught him where the puck would be headed 3 or 4 seconds/passes later -- think that paid off handsomely.  I carry that over into my analysis by playing the race, this was critical to making Ice Box my selection last year.  The race set up perfectly for a deep closer -- and had he not been hip checked 6 times in the stretch.  Nonetheless the WPS was tremendous ROI.

So with that lets look at the running styles of each contender with Early Speed, Stalker, Versatile, Deep Closer.

Early Speed (7 horses):  With 7 horses this qualifies as a speed duel early.  Question is who will be in the lead at the 1/4 pole and how much gas do they use up.
5-Decisive Moment, 6-Comma to the Top, 7-Pants on Fire, 13-Mucho Macho Man, 14-Shackleford, 17-Soldat, 18-Uncle Mo

Stalker (4): Could get caught up going to fast with hot pace -- jockey is key.
11-Master of Hounds, 12-Santiva, 15, Midnight Interlude, 20-Watch Me Go

Versatile (5): Early speed helps this group with fewer to pass on the backside and stretch than deep closers.  Key will be to avoid trouble as they head to the first turn.
1- Archarcharch,  3-Twice the Appeal, 4-Stay Thirsty, 10-Twinspired, 16-Animal Kingdom

Closer (4): 4 horses will try to duplicate the effort Ice Box had last year.  Need 1/4 in :22/change or faster and 1/2 in :46/change or faster.
 2-Brilliant Speed, 8-Dialed In, 9-Derby Kitten, 19-Nehro

Based on this info you then need to cross reference with the horses pedigree and prior preps to see if they can get the 1 1/4 miles and if they can compete with the other horses.  The shape of the race takes hold and you can then begin to determine your betting strategy.  One more day until Derby Selection Day!

"Riders Up!  See You in the Winner's Circle."