2011 Triple Crown Prep Races

With a nod to the NFL having just completed its annual draft, I enjoy the task of being horse racing's version of Mel Kiper and Todd McShay.  Only in my case I aim to forecast much better than they do Kiper (9 correct) and McShay (8).  In all fairness, with trades and unwise draft management (Vikings--can I get a trade down), it is a difficult task.  The Triple Crown prep races are the equivalent of the NFL Combine or college pro day for these horses vying to join the 136 horse prior of being a Derby winner (first overall selection). 

Tip of my hat to DRF who does a fabulous job of providing recaps, charts and video for all the preps allowing me to employ the Madden Clicker and analyze each race and the contenders.  This year was no different as I viewed each prep multiple times to garner insight that leads to my top pick and subsequent mock.  I will spare you from detailing each race only highlighting four key preps in alphabetical order (Arkansas Derby, Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby and Wood Memorial).

2011 Arkansas Derby

Arkansas Derby  1. Archarcharch (98) 2. Nehro (98)
Recent Derby History: Super Saver (2010 -- finished 2nd) and Smarty Jones (2004 -- 1st)
Recent Beyers: 2010 (98), 2009 (101), 2008 (103), 2007 (105), 2006 (98)
Many people may discount this race as The Factor had a poor showing, but I greatly differ as the fractions were :22.2 :46.2 and 1:49.1.  This was a fast pace upfront that suited closers (and most likely similar to what we can expect in the Derby) which Archarcharch and Nehro have demonstrated to be.  Both of these horses are in a position to receive the blanket of roses.  Archarcharch won by a neck.  Most will point to Nehro charging hard and most likely would have edged had the race been longer, which is a good handicapping.  Little talk about how Archarcharch raced on the outside for the majority of the race and still got up for the win.  The question for both will be the dreaded bounce as both have been improving steadily during the prep season.

2011 Florida Derby

Florida Derby 1. Dialed In (93) 2. Shackleford (93)
Recent Derby History: Big Brown (2008 -- 1st) and Barbaro (2006 -- 1st)
Recent Beyers: 2010 (99 -- Ice Box), 2009 (111), 2008 (106), 2007 (99), 2006 (103)
Dialed In is running from the same playbook as Riders Up! 2010 Derby Selection Ice Box -- its ironic as it is the same owner(LaPenta)/trainer(Zito) with similar running styles.  Dialed In will certainly garner attention and may be the favorite to win the Derby or even the morning line.  The race had a slower opening 1/4 but gained speed in the second 1/4 with :23.1 :46.1 thus benefiting Dialed In's style.  The faster 1/2 mile most likely affected speedy Shackleford (front runner) -- I can see Shackleford dictating the early pace on Saturday.  This race also saw Soldat (garnering some buzz this week) and Stay Thirsty finish out of the money. 

2011 Santa Anita Derby

Santa Anita Derby 1. Midnight Interlude (97) 2. Comma to the Top (95)
Recent Derby History: Giacomo(2005 -- 1st)
Recent Beyers: 2010 (100), 2009 (97), 2008 (95), 2007 (100), 2006 (108)
This race seems to be losing its luster when it comes to Derby winner.  If you throw out 2005 long shot Giacomo you need to go back to 98 (Real Quiet) and 97 (Silver Charm) when a Derby winner came from this race.  That said Midnight Interlude ran a stalking style of race which is typically not the best style for 1 1/4 mile of the Derby.  Comma to the Top is a pace setter and has early speed...he will be gunning for the first turn on Saturday.  Consider but would discount this race.

2011 Wood Memorial

Wood Memorial 1. Toby's Corner (94) 3. Uncle Mo (92)
Recent Derby History: Funny Cide (2003 -- 2nd)
Recent Beyers: 2010 (109), 2009 (103), 2008 (93), 2007 (97), 2006 (99)
The lesson learned was that Uncle Mo was exposed and may not be the next coming of Secretariat (although Secretariat finished 3rd in the Wood just like Uncle Mo).  He possesses the best talent of any horse in this year's Derby.  Unfortunately he has not captured the magic of his 2-year old season as BC Juvenile champ.  Can he regain that form for the Derby, we will soon find out.  I consider him a definite factor.  He likes to be forward in races which could be interesting given what looks like a lot of early speed and the race may not suit him well.  Toby's Corner showed impressive determination on this trip.  I wish the Beyer was a little stronger but nonetheless Toby's Corner might have something to say on Saturday.

All in all the preps this year seemed a little weaker from the Beyer perspective and we lost some quality horses along the way.  This is the case every year as it is not an easy task to become the Derby champion let alone a shot at the Triple Crown.  I look forward to highlighting the running styles in my report tomorrow as the race begins to take shape.

"Riders Up! See You in the Winner's Circle."