2017 Kentucky Derby Selection

Welcome back for the 143rd rendition of the Run for the Roses. Last year we saw three different winners in each leg of the Triple Crown a year removed from the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years.  I hypothesize we could see something similar this year.  Had you boxed my top eight 2016 Derby selections in a $1 Super High Five (top 5 and $120 bet) would have returned $5,794.00. Riders Up 2016 Derby Selection, Creator, won the Belmont after an abysmal Derby trip paying $34.80 to win. Hat tip to Mr. Bohmer who along with me believed on that selection last year and was paid handsomely.

As many of my loyal readers know, this annual compendium of horse chatter includes a snapshot of the past year with my family. My kids continue to grow up too fast. Elle is now 7 going on 27.  She has affinity for acting having recently played Titania in Shakespeare's Midsummer Night's Dream. Could not tell you how many times we rehearsed her parts - her memory is insane as she could recite the entire play.  Elle also was fortunate to make the top soccer team for '09s.  In her spare time, she enjoys reading, dancing and watching Disney Channel (Liv and Maddie, Bunk'd, KC Undercover among others). Meanwhile James continues to love soccer, he is playing on the top team in his age group.  He's turned into a mini Jimmy Kimmel with a dry sense of humor that delivers clever jokes.  Competitive video gaming fills up some of his time with secondary passion for creating new game ideas. Parenting tip, make coding your kids second language.  It will serve them well. Shout out to my brother Jason's girlfriend Jessica who is celebrating her 40th birthday with a Derby party celebration this weekend that most likely will have my sister and parents in attendance. As always special thoughts to my Mom and Dad who introduced me to the ponies at an early age.

 

Recently, I joined Amazon Web Service focusing on Venture Capital business development in the San Francisco Bay Area. Amazon is on the trajectory to be the largest company in the world and it would be an added bonus if it became the first trillion dollar company. Many people have impacted my career, but none more lately than my mentor and horse racing fan Phil Raskin (thank you).

How about the past year in sports? Cubs, Cavs, Patriots with massive comebacks. A highlight of the past 12 months was attending the Ryder Cup in my home state of Minnesota. Simply awesome!

Finally as many of you know, I am an avid bitcoin ambassador. Watch the charts on this one ($1,555 at time of writing with 52 week low of $427).  Another cryptocurrency I am dabbling in is Ethereum.  ETH has been on a fun ride the past year ($100.80 as of this writing with a 52 week low of $6.08). Blockchain technology is going to impact pretty much every industry from banking, payments, real estate, contracts and so forth.

Well let's refocus on this year's selection.  Due to time constraints, this year will not have the "fancy" graphics as year's past.  The road to this Derby has been fairly wacky as every entrant has had had a proverbial hiccup including the Morning Line Favorite Classic Empire.  Note that Classic's grandpa, Empire Maker, was beaten by Riders Up 2003 Derby choice Funny Cide breaking a gelding curse. Weather could play a factor as rain is forecast with a slightly cooler version of the latest fastest two minutes in sports. I'm a huge fan of Always Dreaming but his training and equipment changes this week are a cause for concern despite a blowout in his final drill.

The race lost what would have been its main contender and most prominent trainer (Baffert) when Mastery was injured after winning the San Felipe Stakes. Considering we have had four straight wins by the favorite and the last time we had five was in 1891-96 9 (actually 6 in a row), could this be the year of a longer shot?

Pace Scenario/Running Styles

Also pace of the race may play a factor and given all the comebacks this year it makes me wonder if we have a come from behind winner this year. Expecting early speed to first turn with a lot inside meaning it will push the pace so those horses do not get squeezed.  This sets up for tactical speed and closers.

Speed: (3) Fast and Accurate, (5) Always Dreaming, (6) State of Honor, (9) Irap, (11) Battle of Midway, (17) Irish War Cry

Stalk: (2) Thunder Snow, (4) Untrapped, (7) Girvin, (14) Classic Empire, (18) Gormley, (19) Practical Joke

Closer: (1) Lookin at Lee, (8) Hence, (10) Gunnevera, (12) Sonneteer, (13) J Boyes Echo, (15) McCraken, (16) Tapwrit, (20) Patch

Pedigree

Like normal, Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector male lines dominate this field with 19 of 20 horses carrying at least one cross of Mr Prospector and all 20 carrying Northern Dancer. Note that (2) Thunder Snow carries six crosses of Northern Dancer in his pedigree.  Apologies to my college buddy and Kentucky native Buck, but this was to easy to pass up, inbreeding is critical to success in Kentucky.  Note that 17 of 20 are inbred to Northern Dancer through at least two lines.

Dosage (4.00 and lower) used to be a critical component to determining Derby winners.  This is changing since two year old horses are not resting as much between their freshman and sophomore seasons. thus denying beneficial rest before launching a demanding spring campaign.  In fact we are seeing more lightly raced horses at 3 due to the later Breeders Cup heading into the Derby. Only one winner of Breeder's Cup Juvenile has gone on to win the Mint Julep special (Street Sense).

All colts are under 4.00 except for (5) Always Dreaming 5.00, (12) Sonneteer 5.00, (13) J Boys Echo 4.09, (14) Classic Empire 5.00. Note that Thunder Snow is 0.89.  Also American Pharoah was 4.33. Dual Qualifiers include (10) Gunnevera, (15) McCracken, (18) Gormley, (19) Practical Joke. 

Unlikely to get mile and a quarter: (3) Fast and Accurate, (4) Untrapped, (19) Practical Joke.

Analysis

With a field so large, let's cut to it and eliminate some equines who are better off being relegated to a lower level. Wish US pro sports followed European Futbol's lead. Maybe the Browns would be replaced by Cleveland's Arena team (Gladiators).

Toss (4 Horses): (3) Fast and Accurate, (4) Untrapped,  (12) Sonneteer, (20) Patch

Note that Patch fittingly named does not have a left eye.

Possible Contender - Need to Eliminate (7 Horses): (1) Lookin At Lee, (6) State of Honor, (7) Girvin, (11) Battle of Midway, (13) J Boys Echo, (18) Gormley, (19) Practical Joke

I do like State of Honor and feel Practical Joke is better suited for shorter distances but a quality thoroughbred. Also Grivin is a solid horse but has been training in an unorthodox manner with pool time this week (injury?)

In Contention (9 Horses):

• (2) Thunder Snow: Godolphin shipper from UAE. Not your typical foreign horse. In play. Training beautifully. First Time Lasix (Positive). Post position hurts.
• (5) Always Dreaming: Could be a super star. Been very full of himself expending energy.  I like a lot but concerned with post and recent training. 3 for 3 since stretching to two turn races. Owned by Tampa Bay Lightning owner.
• (8) Hence: Pace scenario could set up well. Note only 4 horses in last 96 years have won Derby without an April prep race (notably Riders Up 2006 selection Barbaro was one of them). Think the pros are saying he had a dream trip in Sunland when in fact he moved early there with fast fractions.
• (9) Irap: Hot Derby trainer having won 2 of last 3.  Broke Maiden in last race after 7 defeats - peaking? Bluegrass winner.
• (10) Gunnevera: Solid closer with a possible dream pace scenario - would be a similar race to Derby Riders Up selection Orb in 2013. Purchased for only $16,000 - Well Done with career earnings of $1.17MM.
• (14) Classic Empire: Arkansas Derby/Kentucky Derby winners is impressive list. Will be favorite and father was Riders Up selection that finished 2nd (Pioneerof The Nile) while grandpa lost to another Riders Up Selection Funny Cide. If he wasn't favorite I'd really like him and is richest horse to start Derby over $2MM in earnings.
• (15) McCraken: 3 wins at Churchill as 2 year old. Training well after rough patch earlier this year. Foundation is the question.
• (16) Tapwrit: Solid pedigree. Pletcher trained yet only one Pletcher horse has won Derby. Thinking Belmont is the bet for him.
• (17) Irish War Cry: In a year of breaking curses - this is the ultimate. No Derby horse has won from the 17 hole. Note that 5 of last 9 have won from auxiliary gate 15-20. Training very well. Not as sold as many wise guys are with this one as Wood Memorial has an ugly record for In-The-Money in Derby the past 10-15 years.  His win there was 6th fastest Wood in since 2009.

2017 Selection

Laboring over this selection is as understated as Lavar Ball is overstated.  I have flip flopped on the decision more times than Conor McGregor and Floyd Mayweather have stated the fight is on or off. Wish I was more decisive like Bobby Axelrod (Billions-HBO) but he likes harness racing so does that count?  The positives for each colt are easily offset by a strike(s).  Six horses stand out to me as potential to be draped in a Garland of Roses. Heed that warning as this will be an exotic betting dream if you hit.  Monster payouts. My primary focus will be on wise exotic wagering as I strategize between now and post with significant consideration for the weather and track conditions.
 

WIN: (8) HENCE

PLACE: (15) McCRAKEN

SHOW: (5) ALWAYS DREAMING

4th: (14) CLASSIC EMPIRE

5th: (2) THUNDER SNOW

6th: (17) IRISH WAR CRY

OTHERS: (10) GUNNEVERA, (16) TAPWRIT, (9) IRAP

If you play the Oaks/Derby make sure you pair Paradise Woods with your Derby choice(s)

Riders Up! See You in the Winner's Circle!