Welcome back for this annual digest
prognosticating the fastest 2 minutes in sports with the 144th “Run for the Roses.” A milestone for me
as this will be the 20th official Riders Up selection with 13
narratives. Will that wisdom translate to
a tote score? Chalk has ruled the day in
the previous 5 Derbies after decades long drought. Obviously that impacts a supposed “wise guy’s”
record in supplying Derby insights – on principle I can’t select the favorite,
right. Why is this happening? Derby qualification
points system was significantly altered you guessed it five years ago which impacted number of speed horses
gaining entry thus slowing the Derby pace from blistering to decent allowing
class horses with tactical speed a clearer advantage to immortality. 2018 easily could set up the same way as
Justify has trained phenomenally with an undefeated record in 3 races. However, the curse of Apollo will be broken
if he wears the Garland of Roses Saturday evening. Last time a horse won
without racing as a 2-year old, future US President Franklin Roosevelt was 5
and Thomas Edison invented the phonograph (1882). The unbeaten streak now stands at an impressive 61 with 3
Places and 5 Shows. Another possible
curse is in play with Mendelssohn shipping after his 18+ length romp in UAE
Derby. Previous UAE shippers are 0 for
13.
For those new to this annual compendium, the medium
is my version of a holiday card while also sharing clues to my selection. My
kids are my everything continuing to impress with their intelligence and
growth. Elle (8, 3rd Grade) is developing a pitch deck where she “will
have the coolest office ever” that Silicon Valley VCs will be clamoring to invest. She’s also energetic about cooking, Roblox,
YouTube, sleepovers with friends, all while crushing it in school. James (11, 5th Grade) has an
affinity for gaming and eSports. CS:GO along with Fortnite rule his free time
while he is an avid supporter of Cloud9 (what happened to NFL, NHL, MLB, NBA). Twitch may have a budding superstar and Dad’s
fingers are crossed that an eSport college scholarship is in his future. If
gaming doesn’t work, maybe he lands on SNL – kid cracks me up. Traveling with
kids is pure gold as we had a blast visiting Colorado (Cherry Hills/Vail)
hanging with Gutrich and Bohmer clans, Minnesota & Palm Springs with family, and recently to
LA. Elle crossed off a bucket list item of hanging out with the Hollywood sign. Kids made a guest appearance in Springfield
with the Simpson’s at Universal Studios.
For me, our annual “Boys Trip” was planned by
my college roommate, Sody who as expected executed the plan flawlessly as we
journeyed to Chapel Hill for an Irish football game and golf. A highlight was an awesome
ride with Mango filled with powerful conversation to catch my flight out of Charlotte.
My parents have always been my North Star introducing
me to racing with a horse we owned named Super Count that had success at Canterbury
as a claimer. My sister and brother mockingly
call me the “golden child” when in fact they are platinum. I love you guys. Happy to see your snow-filled April finally has melted away and golf clubs have taken over for shovels. Ouch,
another reason I live in California.
As of this writing I have had 375 Day 1s at Amazon Web Services. Everyone should read Uncle Jeff’s Annual Shareholder’s Letters. Weaved together they epitomize how Amazon and our culture manifests its destiny and continues progressing by Working Backwards which is genius. Amazon recently announced its earnings demonstrating the impact AWS has on the overall organization. Simply unreal and wild that we really are just starting. Onto another Day 1. Work has taken me to Vegas twice in past year with large scores at Encore craps tables (Lamppy would applaud) and jackpot when using my line “Where ya in from?” to liven the table chatter alongside Coulter and Kleinow and a guest appearance by Saul Berenson (Homeland).
Speaking of Kleinow, special shout out to my AWS
colleague and New Yorker who is in Louisville to celebrate his bachelor party under
the Twin Spires. Show Pool DK, Show
Pool. Reminds me of 2002 (War Emblem) with
my college hockey teammate Rush’s bachelor party. Another call out to my
brother’s girlfriend Jessica’s son Michael for graduating HS in a month’s time.
Also, in memoriam for Thunder Gulch who died this year and was my first
official selection and 1995 Derby winner.
Many of my followers know I have been evangelizing blockchain and cryptoassets since I first read Satoshi’s white paper in December 2013. Fascinating the rollercoaster last 12 months have demonstrated for bitcoin and other cryptoassets. Last year on this weekend I urged my readers to buy BTC for $1,555, ETH for $101. The 52 week high rocketed to $19,343 for BTC, $1,241 for ETH per CoinDesk. Current prices BTC $9,643 ETH $776. This is a 10+ year journey. The degenerate in me now owns 17 various cryptoassets. In 2017 ICO became prevalent and was added our lexicon which with proper regulation could have massive ramifications for funding companies, err projects via a non-profit foundation. IMHO, the crypto volatility is adding noise to what blockchain’s true impact will have on our world. Bring on the naysayers. Trust me, it is happening and I’m thrilled to play a role in it with Amazon!
The Race
Back to the program - Let’s handicap! This
race features a high concentration of talent at the top. Seven of the 20 runners
are listed at 12-1 or lower on the morning line, highlighting the deep pool of
worthy win candidates in this race. The post position
draw did not really impact any key players. Here’s some data (very Amazonian). The
era of ‘full’ Derby fields began in earnest in 1981. The 1981 Derby gate
accommodated 21 starters and has attracted near-capacity attendance since.
During that time, posts 5-16 have won 30 of 36 Derbies. Also, horses breaking
from the auxiliary gate (15-20) have finished in the Derby top three 25 times
in 37 years from 111 possible trifecta spots. Also, since 1920, 94 Derby
starters without an April prep are 5 Wins, 6 Places, and 5 Shows. The five
winners are Orb, Animal Kingdom, Mine That Bird, Big Brown and Needles.
Notably, a horse without an April prep has finished in the Derby top 3 in 9 of
the last 11 years.
Beyond my Kiperesque review of tape, past
performances, pedigree analysis among other tools on these equine animals I
employ Jon White’s Strikes System that dates back to 1973 (my birth year and
interestingly Secretariat. Without going into many details. Derby Strikes System consists
of nine key factors that attempt to ascertain the chances a horse has to win
the Kentucky Derby from both tactical and historical perspectives. When a horse
does not qualify in one of the nine categories, the horse gets a strike. I am a
disciple as going back to 1973, 38 of the last 45 Kentucky Derby winners have
had zero strikes or one strike. Only one horse in the last 45 years has won the Derby with more than two strikes. That was Mine That Bird, who had four strikes in one of the largest longshots of all time.
0 or 1 Strike
|
2 Strikes
|
3
Strikes
|
Audible (1)
|
Bravazzo
|
Hofburg
|
Bolt d’Oro (1)
|
Firenze Fire
|
Justify
|
Enticed (0)
|
Lone Sailor
|
Noble Indy
|
Flameaway (0)
|
Magnum Moon
|
Promise Fulfilled
|
Free Drop Billy (1)
|
Solomini
|
|
Good Magic (1)
|
||
Mendelssohn (0)
|
||
My Boy Jack (1)
|
||
Vino Rosso (1)
|
Pace
Scenario/Running Styles
Pace always dictates the outcome. Above is Timeformus prediction. I am in somewhat agreement but feel that (3)
Promises Fulfilled and (4) Flameaway will be 1-2 into quarter with Justify 3rd.
It will not be lightning fast (22.8-23.1) setting up for tactical speed to be well
positioned.
Pedigree
Normally I would write an indepth analysis but with time constraints I'll move along. Notably Scat Daddy has 4 horses in this race and has had
mixed results with his progeny with distance races. Suffice to say I’ve done my
homework in my analysis. Finally a little regarding Dosage (4.00 and lower)
which used to be a critical component to determining Derby winners. Dosage is a
ratio of speed over stamina and with 1 ¼ to run stamina usually is desired. This
is changing since two year old horses are not resting as much between their
freshman and sophomore seasons coupled with the Derby point system eliminating
Usain Bolt’s making pace more favorable.
All colts are under 4.00 except for (1) Firenze Fire 4.14, (3) Promises Fulfilled 9.00, (5) Audible 5.00. Note Triple Crown Winner American Pharoah was 4.33 and last year’s winner Always Dreaming was 5.00.
Derby Auction Prices (New Data Point this year)
A high price at
auction doesn't guarantee a good finish much less a win in the Kentucky Derby. $1MM
or more horses have fared particularly badly, with only one win (Fusaichi
Pegasus) and one second (Lion Heart) from 17 horses. So let's apply this to
2018's crop with their auction prices. The bargain horses who sold for less
than $100,000 this year are: My Boy Jack ($20,000), Noble Indy ($45,000), and
Promises Fulfilled ($37,000). The ones likely eliminated, or at least having a
jinx against them, for selling over $1 million are: Bolt d'Oro ($1,000,000),
Good Magic ($1,000,000), Instilled Regard ($1,050,000), and Mendelssohn
($3,000,000). My friend Kilcs would
advise to stay $500k and lower while his figurative twin Eddie J would nod in
approval while thinking about his marathon session albeit on a black jack table
in Tahoe that would rival Mike McDermott’s run vs Teddy KGB.
Mendelssohn
|
$3,000,000
|
Instilled Regard
|
$1,050,000
|
Good Magic
|
$1,000,000
|
Bolt d’Oro
|
$1,000,000
|
Audible
|
$500,000
|
Justify
|
$500,000
|
Vino Rosso
|
$410,000
|
Flameaway
|
$400,000
|
Magnum Moon
|
$380,000
|
Combatant
|
$320,000
|
Solomini
|
$270,000
|
Free Drop Billy
|
$200,000
|
Lone Sailor
|
$120,000
|
Noble Indy
|
$45,000
|
Promises Fulfilled
|
$37,000
|
My Boy Jack
|
$20,000
|
Bravazzo, Enticed, Firenze Fire, Hofburg
|
Homebred
|
Analysis
Large fields mean we need to move some horses
to the waiver wire. These owners are thrilled to say they had a Derby runner.
Toss (4 Horses): (1) Firenze Fire, (2) Free Drop Billy, (3) Promises Fulfilled, (4) Flameaway
Possible Contender - Need to Eliminate (6 Horses): (8) Lone Sailor, (10) My Boy Jack, (12) Entice, (13) Bravazzo, (15) Instilled Regard, (20) Combatant. My Boy Jack could be reminiscent of Riders Up 2010 Selection Ice Box being last at quarter and half and coming through stretch at end – Don’t think pace will be that goofy.
In Contention (10 Horses):
(5) Audible: A
NY-bred son of Into Mischief, Audible emerged as a leading contender with
decisive wins in the Holy Bull (G2) and Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park
plus 4 straight, registering excellent BRIS Speed ratings of 105 and 107.
Triple-digit BRIS Late Pace numbers add to his appeal and Audible has the
tactical speed to settle in midpack before offering his best. Four-time Eclipse
Award-winning jockey Javier Castellano, who is hungry for his first Kentucky
Derby victory, opts for the improving bay colt and two-time Kentucky Derby
scorer Todd Pletcher, who won last year with Always Dreaming, provides an edge.
(6) Good Magic If
the pattern holds, third start off the layoff could prove rosy for Good Magic.
After dropping his first two outings last year, the Curlin colt improved
dynamically when breaking his maiden in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Del
Mar, generating a 105 BRIS Speed rating for the 4 ¼-length decision.
Two-year-old champion appears to be building toward another peak performance in
the Kentucky Derby. The chestnut opened 2018 with a disappointing third in
Fountain of Youth (G2) and while he rebounded in the Blue Grass (G2), Good
Magic was far from flashy winning by 1 ½ lengths. That’s fine for supporters
who envision the Chad Brown pupil taking a big step forward in the Run for the
Roses.
(7) Justify Big,
fast and powerful. Since opening his clear on February 18, Justify has proven
special winning all three career starts with ease and netted a whopping 114
BRIS Speed rating for a three-length romp in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), the
highest number in a qualifier since the points system originated in 2013. No
unraced 2-year-old has won the Kentucky Derby in 136 years and Justify’s
inexperience (didn’t make debut until mid-February) rates as the main concern,
but the son of Scat Daddy clearly has the goods in terms of talent and
four-time Kentucky Derby winner Bob Baffert knows how to get horses ready for
their best. The bright chestnut colt will likely be prominent from the start
with Mike “Big Money” Smith. Note his earnings to date are $666,000 (hmmm).
(9) Hofburg Intriguing
despite having just three career starts (but at least he ran as a
two-year-old!). A closing second in the
Xpressbet Florida Derby while almost eight lengths clear of the others, the son
of Tapit has numbers that have risen dramatically with each outing and a
pedigree that suggests the Derby’s testing 10-furlong trip will be no
issue. If there’s a pace meltdown, he
could make some serious noise late.
(11) Bolt d’Oro Two-year-old
star eligible to put it all together at Churchill Downs. A disastrous start in
the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) cost him championship honors and Bolt d’Oro has
returned this year in a pair of races with no pace, finishing a head back in
the San Felipe (G2) (elevated to first via DQ) and a non-threatening second in
the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Those efforts did provide valuable fitness and the
multiple Grade 1-winning son of Medaglia d’Oro should receive a much better
set-up for his finishing kick in the Kentucky Derby. Bolt d’Oro registered a
career-best 110 BRIS Speed rating last time and Mick Ruis-trained colt picks up
the services of three-time Kentucky Derby-winning jockey in Victor Espinoza.
(14) Mendelssohn Breeders’
Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) winner displayed fine class before switching to dirt
with a tour-de-force performance in the U.A.E Derby (G2), winning by a
remarkable 18-length margin while appearing to have more in reserve. It’s no
surprise the son of War Front appeared better on the main track, with
Mendelssohn being a half-brother to superstar Beholder, and it’s a good sign to
see Ryan Moore, who could’ve ridden the favorite in the first leg of the
English Triple Crown, the 2,000 Guineas (G1), choose Mendelssohn instead. Aidan
O’Brien is one of the world’s leading conditioners and Mendelssohn has
displayed fine tactical speed, which should allow him to avoid traffic
congestion in a 20-horse field. The Coolmore-owned colt seeks to become the
first European-trained Kentucky Derby winner.
(16) Magnum Moon A
superb winner in all four starts, Magnum Moon looks ready to put the “Curse of
Apollo” (Apollo last unraced juvenile to win Kentucky Derby in 1882) to the
test. The Todd Pletcher trainee debuted in mid-January and has raced at three
different venues so far, including a pair of stakes wins at Oaklawn Park in
which he displayed dazzling acceleration into the stretch and finished
powerfully under the wire. By Malibu Moon, sire of 2013 Kentucky Derby winner
Orb, Magnum Moon possesses a high cruising speed and still appears to have
plenty of upside
(17) Solomini Longer shot to watch in exotics
(18) Vino Rossi He’s
always been well-regarded but Vino Rosso needed a couple of stakes attempts
before finally realizing his talent in the Wood Memorial (G2), rallying to win
going away by a three-length margin. And he could be poised to keep showing
more in a speed-filled Kentucky Derby field. The up-and-coming Curlin colt
brings promising BRIS numbers to the equation, registering triple-digit BRIS
Speed and Late Pace ratings on multiple occasions, and he has the same
trainer/jockey combination (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) as 2017 Kentucky
Derby winner Always Dreaming. Vino Rosso could be finishing fastest of all in
the latter stages.
(19) Noble Indy Long shot pick to possibly click and in play for
exotics.
2018
Selection
Audible
If you look at the first Amazon website
pictured below, would
you imagine it would be a $750+B company today.
Amazon started with books and has an app that just so happens to have 5 components to its logo named
Audible. This horse was bred in NY (sorry it’s not a Kentucky bred Buck) which
was also where Riders Up biggest Derby score (Funny Cide/Superfecta) hailed.
Further, this horse is not flashy and really does not take practice too seriously, however he's a gamer. Brings to mind this
quote, “We’re talking about practice. We’re not talking
about the game. We’re talking about practice.” Which will make the ears of BG
and Wilson perk up – oh wait they are still on their Super Bowl hangover so
maybe not.
All kidding aside and I’d be remiss to not point out I respect Justify and Mendelssohn significantly in this race and would not be surprised if they win snapping a curse. Favorites have been the trend with points change. I love the way this horse has prepped winning with multiple racing styles and is about to run his 3rd race off a layoff with a likely chance to improve significantly in his sophomore season. Pedigree may be questioned but Dosage is a declining data point so will not let that sway my selection. Besides, Audible already outran his sprint-oriented damside pedigree (the proper side to see stamina) by winning the Florida Derby, and he gives every impression that more distance will not be a major hindrance. It’s the way he finishes off his races that makes him so appealing. In all of his wins, just as he appears to have exhausted all of his gears, he turns it up one more notch for the stretch drive.
WIN:
(5) Audible
PLACE:
(7) Justify
SHOW:
(14) Mendelssohn
4th:
(9) Hofburg
5th: (11) Bolt d’Oro
6th: (19) Noble Indy
6th: (19) Noble Indy
OTHERS:
(6) Good Magic, (16) Magnum Moon, (17) Solomini,
(18) Vino Rossi
Close
but no cigar to Novo who’s dad nearly had an entrant in the Oaks w/ Amy’s
Challenge.
Enjoy
your Derby
Riders Up! See You in the Winner's Circle!
No comments:
Post a Comment