Kentucky Derby 2010 Selection

A year has passed since Calvin Bo"rail" brought home Mind That Bird in shocking fashion, the 136th "Run for The Roses" is upon us.  Since last year Hillary gave birth to our second child, Elisabeth, to go along with stablemate James.  Elle's first taste of the Derby -- Think she's leaning on the only filly 11 - Devil May Care.  As the trumpet blares and My Old Kentucky Home plays, remember to enjoy the pageantry that is America's crown jewel in racing.

Now on to my analysis.  The blog has made this version a little different as I have been posting different angles to be considered in leading to my annual selection.  First, this year's field on the whole is relatively weak and experts agree there is no super horse in the Derby.  Randy Moss (no not of the Pats and former Vike) believes it is the worse field since 1982 (Gato Del Sol).

Beyer ratings of 100 have typically been a staple of the Derby winner.  This year we only have 3 horses who would qualify (11 Devil May Care {is Elle onto something here}, 13 Jackson Bend and 20 Sidney's Candy).  Oddly these three all qualified right on 100 -- which in my mind is quite pathetic.  Granted Eskendereya had a 109 until he was not fit to go -- Poor Todd Pletcher and his 0 for 24 (will it be 0-28 after this race?).  Eskenderaya looked like a threat to vie for the Triple Crown.  Will he be covered by the new health care package?  Also, if someone from the Kentucky Derby Rules Committee is reading this please revise the entry guidelines.  Why Setsuko is not is a travesty -- he will be lounging pool side at The Beverly Hills Hotel dreaming he was racing for the garland.

As for the overall look of the field 12 horses are bunched in the 97-100 Beyer ratings which essentially looks like we are trying to redistribute the wealth and become mediocre -- hmmm sounds similar to something else I know taking place in America.  That alone makes this a dramatically wide open affair.  The two favorites (rightfully so) oddly are bookending this affair from the quote unquote dreaded 1 and 20 holes.  Caution, do not be so mesmerized by this history.

Weather will be a factor -- sloppy/muddy is seen as a distinct possibility as it has been raining cats and dogs all week in Louisville.  Hillary's only Derby was in the 2004 monsoon when Smarty Jones, Lion Heart and Imperialism brought her a nice trifecta.  Watch for her selection typically based on silks, birthday of horse (Smarty shares her b-day) and name at the end of this post.  Now let's start eliminating horses from the field to make this more "handicappable" (is that a word?).

Why Are You Here Category (they must have needed tickets)?[3]
Every year there are owners who put their ego ahead of the horses talent to say they have a Derby Runner.  We certainly have that this year which made it impossible for Setsuko to get in.  Please do not get in the way of my Derby selection...please.

 9 - Make Music For Me18 - Backtalk

19 - Homeboykris

Owners Wanted to be at the Party Category -- Enjoy it (Otherwise Distance/Pace/Surface Concerns) [4]

5 - Line Of David 6 - Stately Victor

9 - Dean's Kitten 15 -Discreetly Mine

Horses Who May Figure - Threats Category [5]

3 - Noble's Promise 7 - American Lion

10 - Paddy O'Prado 13 - Jackson Bend

14 - Mission Impazible

Contender Category [8]

After hours of research and film study I have narrowed the filed down to 8 horses who will greatly impact and influence the 136 running of the Kentucky Derby.  Handicapping this race is one of my passions -- with the wide openness of this race it is on par with rolling the dice in Vegas or Macau.  The pace for this race seems to be very fast with a lot of early speed among the entrants this type of race sets up well for closers.  For me I hope it is blistering as a hot pace on an off track makes that pace even hotter (now you know why I loved Setsuko).

1 - Lookin At Lucky [Morning Line Odds 3/1] 2 YO Eclipse winner last year, nothing you can fault here .  Won 5/6 Grade 1 outings with lone loss coming in BC Juvenile which was a superstition until Street Sense won in 2007.  Will be favorite but people may shy due to "dreaded 1 hole."

2 - Ice Box [10/1]Deepest closer in the field and most likely will be last at 1/4 pole.  How does race set-up?  Last Race posted a 99 Beyer.  Like inside post to save ground -- slop makes rail that much better at CD.   Ready to explode here.

4 - Super Saver [15/1] Borel Borel Borel and likes CD. Pace concerns for me.  Distance is not an issue -- interesting angle given weather threat.

11 - Devil May Care [10/1] You go girl.  Unfortunately the Derby passed on a Derby Barbie Doll to sell this year.  Could she win -- why not the fillies have been hot in the last year with Zenyatta and Rachel Alexander (despite her loss today).  1 of 3 with a 100 Beyer. Named after 36th James Bond novel (omen).

12 - Conveyance [12/1]  I love this horse but unfortunately the race does not set up well.  Think it may be a gopher for Baffert to help Lookin At Lucky get around.  Preakness would be a solid place for this colt.  Will be the leader at the 1/4 and possibly 1/2 mile then fade.  War Emblem anyone.  Distance concerns.

16 - Awesome Act [10/1]  Seems to be a lot of people's choice -- why?  Distance questions in pedigree -- please everyone else bet on him, pretty please.  He is a closer which the pace will set up well but do not think he can win given the other closers in this race.  odds will be much lower than the 10/1 morning line shows -- poor value.

17 - Dublin [12/1] Seems poised and progressing well -- big race.  Can go 10 furlongs with nice dosage stats of 2.33.  D Wayne Lukas trained -- can he find the magic for his fifth?  Hunch here?

20 - Sidney's Candy [5/1] named after the late Sidney Craig (Jenny Craig's husband) this horse has been a wire-to-wire wrecking machine.  The style will change here as the pace is much to quick and coming from 20 affects this but I do like the 20 hole for him -- solid colt.  Certainly has the pedigree to get the distance and has the lowest dosage number which is another strong plus.

RACE/PACE Set-up

Please be blistering as everyone is predicting and tire all those at the front and just off the pace.  The race winner will likely be a closer -- my hope anyway.  Below is how I envision the race give me :23 and :46 on the quarter/half and I will be happy.

Selection

This year's selection is based on the pace of the race I anticipate coupled with the feeling this horse is sitting on a career best.  This horse can maneuver through rush hour on the Kennedy.  I have visions of a 2001 Monarchos (just not sub 2:00 -- by the way there is an over/under on 2:05 in Vegas).  Before my selection, special to Rider's Up! my beloved family will be making their choices. 

Hillary and James are going with (10) Paddy O'Prado while Elle is confident in (11) Devil May Care.

1st: (2) Ice Box

2nd (1) Lookin At Lucky

3rd (20) Sidney's Candy

4th (11) Devil May Care

5th (4) Super Saver

NTRA Long Shot to Win

(10) Paddy O'Prado

Thank you and have fun -- remember this is for amusement only and Rider's Up! and myself are not responsible for any financial loss as result of this advice.

See you in the Winner's Circle. Riders Up!