Here we are within a week of the first Saturday in May. My preparations continue before my annual selection post on Friday. In the past one key stat for Derby winners has been attaining a 100 or greater Beyer prior to the mile and 1/4 race for the roses. Yet in the past 6 years we have had three Derby winners with pre-Derby Beyers of less than 100. Those were in 2010 Super Saver (98), 2009 Mine That Bird (81) and 2005 Giacomo (98). Prior to that only one other horse in the past twenty years had this claim, Sea Hero (99) in 1993. So is this trend no longer a trend?
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| Uncle Mo - 2010 BC Juvenile |
This year only two official and one unofficial contender has achieved the 100 Beyer historical trend, Uncle Mo and Soldat with Master of Hounds as the unofficial. Usually we have at least 2 of the final major preps exhibit 100 Beyers. This year -- zero. Digging even deeper Uncle Mo has achieved 100+ on two occasions while he was 2 years old with a 108 in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile and a 102 in his very first race. He has not achieved this level in his sophomore campaign with an 89 and 92. Thus, Soldat is the only horse to have accomplished a 100+ Beyer as a 3 year old. Note: Master of Hounds fresh off viewing the Royal Wedding ships into Louisville. His 115 Racing Post Ratings (the Beyer of Europe) for the Racing Post Trophy and the UAE Derby roughly convert to a 101 figure.
Summary of Derby Contenders with Beyer stats including number of 90+ Beyers.
| Horse | Best Beyer | Date | 90+ Beyers |
| Uncle Mo | 108 | 11/6/10 | 4 |
| Soldat | 103 | 1/21/11 | 3 |
| Master of Hounds | 101* | 3/26/11 | 2 |
| Mucho Macho Man | 99 | 11/27/10 | 3 |
| Archarcharch | 98 | 4/16/11 | 2 |
| Nehro | 98 | 4/16/11 | 2 |
| Dialed In | 97 | 1/30/11 | 3 |
| Comma to the Top | 95 | 4/9/11 | 3 |
| Midnight Interlude | 95 | 4/9/11 | 1 |
| Toby's Corner | 94 | 4/9/11 | 1 |
| Pants on Fire | 94 | 3/26/11 | 1 |
| Twinspired | 93 | 4/16/11 | 1 |
| Shackleford | 93 | 4/3/11 | 1 |
| Brilliant Speed | 93 | 4/16/11 | 1 |
| Animal Kingdom | 92 | 3/26/11 | 1 |
| Anthony's Cross | 91 | 2/12/11 | 1 |
| Decisive Moment | 91 | 1/14/11 | 1 |
| Santiva | 91 | 2/19/11 | 1 |
| Stay Thirsty | 89 | 3/5/11 | 0 |
| Twice the Appeal | 89 | 3/27/11 | 0 |
| Watch Me Go | 84 | 3/12/11 | 0 |
I led the week off with this post as the 100 Beyer trend is one to greatly discount this year. I think those with 94+ have to be considered as potential winners. Very enticing for punters everywhere.
"See you in the Winner's Circle. Riders Up!"
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