Elle (9 going on 29 in the best way) and
James (12) impress me with their burgeoning intelligence, curiosity, and
passion to follow their developing dreams. Elle debuted in her school
play (Mary Poppins / "just" off Broadway) and now has aspirations to replace Ellen in the “near”
future with The Elle Show – she’s disappointed Ellen has a minimum age of 14
for the audience. To beat that restriction Elle envisions being invited as show
guest. Meanwhile James continues to excel with video games so much he has found
his way to YouTube lore playing with Pro Gamers applauded his skills while
having little clue his age. Twitch Channel here we come.
Pinch me. I recently passed 2 years working for a
book company (also known as Amazon) which has afforded me the opportunity to
author my own narrative as I've found a few blank pages. Fortunate to be part of the Amazon Web Services
(AWS) rocket ship allowing me to grow equally professionally and personally
serving startup/venture capital ecosystem in addition to driving global
blockchain initiatives. Always expanding my comfort zone is my life maxim.
Amazon nurtures my life maxim to always push my comfort zone in working
backwards from our customers and learning from an insanely talented team.
I visited Tel Aviv for work and a personal side
excursion to Jerusalem/Bethlehem. Wow! Captivated by the religious history in
reliving many parables while astonished how so many religions literally touch
each other peacefully. Once again I made the pilgrimage to the cathedral of
golf in Augusta National. I indoctrinated my
good friend Ryan McCalley on his maiden voyage around Amen Corner, Rosebud, and
golf shop for a Tuesday practice round. We fortuitously met Bel Air Country
Club icon Eddie Merrins and his son while seeing nearly every top player in the
world. Pro tip always check the weather a few weeks out and use it to your
advantage – SCORE!! Ryan recently left the craziness of Silicon Valley for Savannah/Hilton
Head area with his expecting wife and 2 adorable kids which affords me a reason
to venture to their beautiful property and chase a little white Titleist.
Speaking of The Masters. Welcome back Tiger,
golf clap on 15 and 81. It was powerful to see him regroup after
self-inflicted wounds and touching to witness him share an intimate
moment with his kids/mom in the same greenside location he hugged it out with his father/mother
22 years prior after his first. Another hat tip to NFL GOATs, Tom Brady and
Bill Belichick with their 6th Lombardi defeating the organization
they won their first against. Simply ridiculously awesome – he’s 41 albeit 58 year old Jon Court will be in the irons of Long Range Toddy for the Derby. Go Sharks.
Prediction, Jumbo will play his original team in the finals and hoist Lord
Stanley then skate off to a local golf course with a future date in a hallowed
Hall. Sports world is packed with these full circle themes – Where’s Rinaldi or better yet Marty Smith?
Why does Game of Thrones have to end? Yes, I
would have typed GoT, however my parents would have zero clue on that
reference. Now it improves to 9% on low side and 26% on high. Billions is always on point weaving the trading world with reality. Who knows
maybe there’s a future in a new show for me – Crypto anyone?
In Memoriam. On March 18 Riders Up! 2009
Derby Selection Pioneerof the Nile died of a heart attack. He finished 2nd
to 50-1 longshot Mine That Bird courtesy of Calvin Bo”rail.” Most recently
Pioneerof the Nile was receiving $110k stud fees after his son American Pharoah
won the 12th Triple Crown in 2015. Purchased for $290k his career
earnings were $1.63MM and he stood in stud from 2010 up until his death. In other news, recently the track at Santa Anita has been through a devastating season as 23 horses have died mainly due to training injuries. Santa Anita was closed for all of March losing a typical Derby prep in the San Felipe Stakes. It reopened for the Santa Anita Derby won by Roadster with Game Winner coming in second on a safer/slower track.
Finally, every year my inspiration for
penning this compilation traces to my parents – I scored on pedigree. They
introduced me to horse racing at an impressionable age ferrying my sister,
brother, and me to Canterbury Downs. Love you Mom, Dad, Tracy, Jason, and hug to my
kids. Enough with our time in the paddock, Riders Up!
A Changing Race
Handicapping the Derby has significantly changed due to
Derby Point System being instituted (2013) as it moved from Graded Stakes
Earnings. Since the change six straight favorites have won. This is the longest
run of favorites in Derby history mixed with 2 Triple Crown winners after a 37
year drought. The average odds of the
winner have been $3.43-1 the past 6 years. The old system has yielded average
odds of $16.05-1. Personally, its sacrilege as a handicapper to select the
favorite every year, hence the dry spell with Derby Winners recently.
Since Riders UP! choice Orb’s win from well off the pace (16th
at half-mile), each subsequent winner has
sat 2nd or 3rd in the crowded field at the half-mile
marker and never lower throughout race. In contrast, from 2000 thru 2012, only
War Emblem and Funny Cide won from better than fourth at the half-mile point,
with six winners coming from 12th or farther back. Surprisingly,
from 2000-2012, the average half-mile time of the leader was 46.39, while from
2013-2018 that time was slightly faster at 46.34. When examining the
median half-mile times, the recent races were also faster (46.15 vs. 46.23).
None of the data suggest that there has been a significant difference in the
half-mile pace of the Derby since the rule changes.
The chart below
illustrates recent Derby history with Derby Points System Rank and winner’s position
at half-mile.
Year
|
½ Mile
|
Derby Winner
|
Place
|
Show
|
2018
|
2nd
|
Justify (8)*
|
Good Magic (2)
|
Audible (3)
|
2017
|
2nd
|
Always Dreaming (6)
|
Lookin At Lee (23)
|
Battle of Midway (16)
|
2016
|
2nd
|
Nyquist (2)
|
Exaggerator (3)
|
Gun Runner (1)
|
2015
|
3rd
|
American Pharoah (4)*
|
Firing Line (12)
|
Dortmund (2)
|
2014
|
3rd
|
California Chrome (1)
|
Commanding Curve (21)
|
Danza (5)
|
2013
|
16th
|
Orb (1)
|
Golden Soul (19)
|
Revolutionary (6)
|
Intriguing
Stats
· Last to Lose
@ Age 3: Last 7 Derby winners were
unbeaten at 3. Since Super Saver (2010) all Derby winners had won previous
start. Animal Kingdom (2011) was the last Derby winner to lose at age 3. He
failed in a Gulfstream allowance test, but returned to win the Spiral in his
final prep.
· Subdued
Superfecta: Not only have favorites
won the last 6 Derby renewals, but 18 of the 24 superfecta slots have been
dominated by horses at 10-1 odds or less.
· 2 Year Old
Champ: The last 4 enjoyed strong
Derby showings: American Pharoah (2015) won Triple Crown; Nyquist (2016) won
Derby; Classic Empire (2017) 4th; Good Magic (2018) 2nd.
Game Winner was this crop’s 2-Year Old Champion.
· Winning
Length: 13 consecutive Derbies have
been decided by a length or more. The last close shave came with Giacomo’s
half-length score (2005). The last photo finish was Charismatic’s 1999 victory
by a neck.
·
Trainer: If Bob
Baffert wins another Derby, he will equal Ben Jones’ record for most victories.
Revealing My Kiper/McShay Derby Draft Board
Derby Entries
|
Record
|
DPS #
|
Beyer
|
Work
|
Strikes
|
Style
|
Pedigree
|
Dosage
|
1 War of Will
|
8-3*-1-1
|
12
|
94*
|
47.3
|
1 – 5
|
F/m
|
Yes
|
1.72
|
2 Tax*
|
5-2*-2-1
|
14
|
96*
|
47.4
|
2 – 6,9
|
S/?
|
Yes
|
1.56
|
3 By My Standards
|
*5-2-2-1
|
6
|
97
|
48.2
|
1 -6
|
S/m
|
?
|
3.00
|
4 Gray Magician
|
8-1*-3-2
|
18
|
80
|
1:00.2
|
2 – 2,3
|
S/-
|
?
|
5.00
|
5 Improbable*
|
5-3*-2-0
|
11
|
99
|
1:00.3
|
3–4,6,7
|
S/?
|
Yes
|
4.23
|
6 Vekoma*
|
*4-3-0-1
|
3
|
97*
|
59.4
|
1 – 6
|
S/?
|
?
|
2.56
|
7 Maximum Security
|
4-4-0-0
|
7
|
102
|
53.4
|
1 – 6
|
F/m
|
?
|
3.00
|
8 Tacitus*
|
4-3-0-0
|
1
|
97
|
1:00.0
|
1 – 6
|
S/m
|
Best
|
3.31
|
9 Plus Que Parfait
|
*7-2-1-2
|
4
|
84*
|
1:02.0
|
1 - 7
|
C/m
|
?
|
2.47
|
10 Cutting Humor
|
*6-2-2-1
|
15
|
95
|
48.0
|
0
|
C/m
|
Yes
|
2.11
|
13 Code of Honor
|
5-2*-1-1
|
9
|
95*
|
46.4
|
1 - 6
|
C/?
|
?
|
0.76
|
14 Win Win Win
|
6-3*-2-1
|
16
|
99*
|
47.3
|
2 – 2,3
|
C/m
|
Yes
|
4.50
|
15 Master Fencer
|
6-2*-2-0
|
20
|
-
|
-
|
3 – 1,2,3
|
C/m
|
?
|
2.50
|
16 Game Winner*
|
6-4*-2-0
|
8
|
97
|
1:27
|
0
|
S/?
|
Yes
|
2.33
|
17 Roadster*
|
4-3-0-1
|
5
|
98
|
1:13
|
2 – 1,6
|
S/?
|
Yes
|
2.60
|
18 Long Range Today
|
8-4*-1-1
|
13
|
95*
|
47.4
|
3 -3,4,5
|
C/-
|
Yes
|
4.33
|
19 Spinoff*
|
4-2*-1-1
|
19
|
95
|
1:00.3
|
3 – 2,4,6
|
F/m
|
Yes
|
2.78
|
20 Country House
|
6-1*-2-1
|
17
|
91
|
1:00.0
|
2 – 2,3
|
C/-
|
Yes
|
2.69
|
21 Bodexpress
|
5-M*-3-0
|
21
|
96
|
1:03.0
|
2 - 2,6
|
S/-
|
Yes
|
8.33
|
Derby
Entries with *: 3rd race off layoff, building foundation, primed.
Record
with *before Starts: Has lost as 3 YO, Won last time out
Record
with *after Wins: Has lost as 3 YO, Lost last time out
Beyer
with *: Last Beyer was not their highest
Pace
Scenario/Running Styles/Weather
Given my prior diatribe, with high
probability the winner will come from the Front (F) or Stalking (S) position. Data
dictates Closers (C) used to occur more frequently, with chances much slimmer now.
Weather may also play a factor. Colts who’ve
had success in slop have an “m” under Style. Forecast is calling for rain which could impact my betting strategy. War of Will, Tacitus, Maximum Security, Win Win Win have fared well in slop.
Pedigree
Homework complete with AWS SageMaker AI/ML models on who will get the lengthy 1¼ mile. Additionally, I’ve diminished the use of Dosage (4.00 and
lower) which formerly was a component to determining Derby winners. Dosage is a
ratio of speed over stamina and with distance to run with stamina usually is
desired for this length race.
Northern
Dancer Line: Omaha Beach, War of Will, By My Standards,
Spinoff, Cutting Humor, Haikal, Code of Honor
Mr
Prospector Line: Roadster, Game Winner, Vekoma, Gray
Magician, Maximum Security, Improbable, Country House
Hail
to Reason: Win Win Win, Master Fencer, Tax, Plus Que
Parfait
Seattle
Slew: Tacitus, Long Range Toddy
Note immortal bloodlines Secretariat can be found in 15 of 20 contenders. Those not included War of Will, Code of Honor, Haikal, Plus Que Parfait, and Country House.
Strikes – Courtesy of Jon White
My analysis has incorporated Jon White’s Strikes System which dates back to 1973
when grading stakes became a standard. It is an amalgamation of factors marrying
TACTICAL with HISTORICAL. 38
of the last 46 Kentucky Derby winners have had zero or one strike. Category 6 in
this system has diminished in impact, thus it would not preclude me from
selecting a 2 strike horse with one being in that category.
Let’s Handicap
20 horse field demands an elimination of
equines. Toss are those owners who
are purely here for the Mint Juleps to say they had a Derby horse at the
Brownstable Brown party. Could Factor
are horses that may hit the board that I’m betting against. My Contenders are collection of athletes
I expect one to be draped in the Garland of Roses.
Toss (6)
|
Could Factor (6)
|
4 Gray Magician
|
2 Tax*
|
9 Plus Que Parfait
|
6 Vekoma
|
10 Cutting Humor
|
|
15 Master Fencer
|
13 Code of Honor
|
18 Long Range Today
|
19 Spinoff*
|
20 Country House
|
AE 21 Bodexpress
|
My Contenders (8)
|
Notes
|
1 War of Will
|
Tough LA Derby. Originally Post Position severely hampered chances, improves with Haikal scratch as now will come from 2 hole.
|
3 By My Standards
|
Working Well…Wise Guy pick
|
5 Improbable*
|
Sometimes loses focus, Blinkers on or off? Could win or
finish 20th.
|
7 Maximum Security
|
1st race was a $16k claimer. Pace –aided
wins in FL Derby. Only horse w/ 2 100 Beyers. Only 1 other horse has a 100
and he scratched.
|
8 Tacitus*
|
Handled adversity gaining great
seasoning. 1 horse has won Tampa/Derby double ever & last Wood/Derby double was 1999 (although, Riders Up! Selection Funny Cide was 2nd in Wood/won Derby '03).
|
14 Win Win Win
|
Hockey is in the blood with Hat Trick as his sire – Like
in EXOTICS and slop! Training brilliantly.
|
16 Game Winner*
|
Only 2 have won Breeder’s Cup/Derby in 34 years. Could
be primed for a big jump. Has not won at Age 3. Will now most likely be
favorite ahead of Roadster.
|
17 Roadster*
|
Santa Anita Derby winners have been good in Derby (’12,
’14, ’18 wins). Last 25 Gray colts have lost Derby dating back to 50-1
Giacomo in 2005. Had throat surgery in November to assist breathing. Hasn’t
lost since. Henry Ford would be proud.
|
Derby Entries with *: 3rd race off layoff, building foundation, primed.
2019 Selection
Enough with the furlongs of facts. In Kramer speak - Giddy Up! The expected favorite Omaha Beach’s scratch certainly impacted handicapping this race [update - 11 Haikal has also scratched and Mike Smith now riding 13 Code of Honor]. Parity comes to mind with this vintage yielding cases easily made for a handful plus to be draped in roses. Game Winner will most likely be the post time favorite although you could see a couple others push. All 3 Baffert horses (Game Winner, Improbable, and Roadster) are sitting on their 3rd race off a layoff which he hits the board 31% of time – do the math. I love the versatility of Roadster despite being lightly raced (4 trips). He will need to beat the odds of no horses ever winning from PP17, however Omaha Beach/Mike Smith (who chose Omaha over Roadster) defection assists as he now will break from PP16. PP16 was Riders Up! first Derby and original score with Thunder Gulch. I am betting on a big move forward. The battle tested Tacitus (also 3rd race off a layoff) could be sneaky in this race along with a solid 2 year old champion Game Winner, Win Win Win, and Improbable rounding out my top 5. Interestingly, Roadster has not been hyped as much as the other Baffert horses in recent days, please keep it that way. I will most likely (depending on weather) have exotics keying 17 Roadster, 8 Tacitus, 16 Game Winner on top.
WIN 17 Roadster
PLACE 8 Tacitus
SHOW 16 Game Winner
4th 14 Win Win Win
5th 5 Improbable
6th 7 Maximum Security
7th 1 War of Will
8th 3 By My Standards
Please, enjoy your Derby responsibly.
Riders Up! See You in the Winner's Circle!
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