Kentucky Derby 2021 Selection

Eight months have past since the last Derby held Labor Day weekend. We've handed out two Green Jackets (golf clap DJ, Hideki). Brady had yet to take an official Buccaneer snap then proceeded to win his 7th Super Bowl. Roll Tide keep rolling. Tiger may be done. Aaron Rodgers hosted Jeopardy. This week we return for our annual Mint Julep in a quest to identify the quintessential Derby hat while a crowd assembles to sing My Old Kentucky Home (Thank God!). Shocking it has been 17 years since I last attended a Derby (Smarty Jones). I miss being at Churchill on this weekend. 

For the uninitiated, this narrative is a recap of my year (or 238 days this year) leading to my annual selection. After 10 years, kids and I moved from heart of Silicon Valley (Menlo Park) to beautiful, sleepy Orinda which randomly was once home to Sheila E who co-starred with Rogers Nelson in Purple Rain. With Zoom Fatigue at all-time highs, kids switched to Orinda schools in January returning full-time to class last week. Finally an inkling of long overdue normalcy. Concern the real damage will be the developmental impact of all our children in 5, 10, 20 years versus past 15 months.  

Bitcoin's first Riders Up reference was in 2013 (Orb) with deeper prognostication in 2014 (California Chrome) rendition. Ethereum would be launched 2 months after that writing. Conjuring up my best @Super70sSports imitation as I teleport back in Riders Up time to my May 2014 writing:

"Bitcoin is in its infancy. Had reader's heeded advice last year and purchased bitcoin at around $93, the entertaining volatile ride to just shy of $1,200 and now hovering at $450 may have been fruitful -- suffice to say typical of a nascent market. Love pullbacks -- discount, on sale, buying opportunity.  Big believer in the technology (Bitcoin) and proponent of how it may become a viable global digital currency among other things.  Reminiscent of the early stages of the internet (at least public internet in the 90's).  Obviously the internet thing panned out pretty well. Bitcoin connects the dots on my career from ATMs, trading to venture capital today." Currently BTC $57,026 and ETH $2,750

Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) have become the rage and are catching a significant bid. NFTs have been around for years, think CryptoKitties in 2017. In my humble opinion NFTs are currently overheated. That said, NFTs have staying power as all our kids who've been on their devices playing games during class are thinking in digital terms. Consider possible digital asset meteoric rise as these kids age. NFTs are the new baseball cards, vinyl records, art. Bitcoin, crypto, and the "creator economy" are here to stay. Every 10 minutes bitcoin becomes more secure. If you think you missed it, think again (legal had me add "this is not investment advice") as digital assets are just wrapping the pregame skate considering the US Dollar "infrastructure" printing presses are working overtime. Global impact is the bigger play. I have my popcorn watching this movie play out. 

Last weekend I hit my 4-year anniversary working for this book company originally called Cadabra. Hat tip to the other Jeff at Amazon as he sunsets to Chairman. His relentless customer centric focus and maintaining our culture has allowed me to work for the largest startup in the world. We just happen to be well funded. His 2016 Shareholder Letter was released 1 week prior to my first Day 1 and has been a driver for me professionally and personally. “Day 2 is stasis. Followed by irrelevance. Followed by excruciating, painful decline. Followed by death. And that is why it is always Day 1.”  As of this writing I am at 1,468 Day 1s with AMZN market cap moving from $443B to $1.79T in that time. Fun fact, check where www.relentless.com takes you.

Stick Tap to my 1991 Hill-Murray Pioneer teammates celebrating 30 years since our Minnesota State High School Hockey Championship in the last single class tournament. Cool to have North Star legend Lou Nanne and Chris Cuthbert (still announcing NHL games) perform play-by-play. In memoriam of Alex Trebek, "Who scored the final goal of single tier tourney?"

Special shoutout to those who entertained me in past 8 months while working from home.

Ok let's start working backwards to make my selection. First this year had many ties to my hockey idol, Wayne Gretzky. Three colts ran in Derby preps, The Great One, Gretzky the Great, and in honor of Walter Gretzky passing and even louder shout out to my dad (my hero and role model), Hockey Dad. The jockeys certainly did not tuck the right side of their silks, fold their boot tongue correctly, or baby powder their whips (which might get me canceled) as none made it to venerable Churchill. Mind boggling Gretzky stats. if Gretzky did not score a goal (894 goals), or you subtracted his power play points (890 points), in both instances he'd still be the NHL's all-time points leader. After Gretzky the next top 4 all-time NHL point leaders all played 246 or more games than Gretzky (3 full seasons). He was Secretariat.  

A significant change for first time horses are not allowed to use anti-bleeding drug Lasix as part of sport's attempt to move toward the elimination of race-day medication. No points were awarded to horses running on Lasix thus horses have been conditioned without it. Last horse to win Derby without Lasix was Grindstone in 1996. There certainly is a "vaxxing" joke in here somewhere. 

Another abnormality is only Rock Your World has hit 100 Beyer with others close in Medina Spirit (99), Hot Rod Charlie (99), Mandaloun (98), Essential Quality (97), and Highly Motivated (97). For second time Churchill will be using the special 20-stall starting gate. 

Diving deep I've added racing style EP (Early Pressers), P (Presser), PC (Presser/Closer), C (Closer). With defection of Caddo River we've lost S (Speed) and since new points system in 2012 speed horses have not earned enough points benefitting PC and Derby favorites. A closer has hit 4th or 5th for Superfecta, Super Hi-Five bets in Derby. If you're from the "always bet the greys" school of handicapping favorite Essential Quality, Soup and Sandwich would be your exacta box.

In honor of the NFL Draft concurrently occurring and post my Kiper/McShay like studying of  DRF PP, video of prep races and works, Mike Welsch insights, implementing Jon White's Strikes System, pedigree examination, 1/8 pole position (1st and 2nd time), and other secret sauce. Let's Go!  

Toss (5): 

3-Brooklyn Strong (P), 5-Sainthood (EP), 11-Dynamic One (PC), 13-Hidden Stash (C), 20- Bourbonic (PC)

Cuts - Underneath Possibilities - Need to Eliminate (4): 

12-Helium (PC), 16-King Fury (PC), 18-Super Stock (EP), 19-Soup and Sandwich (EP)

Factors - In My Exotics (3):

2-Like the King (EP), 4-Keepmeinmind (C), 6-O Besos (PC)

Contenders (8):

1-Known Agenda (PC): Adding blinkers has helped. 1986 (Ferdinand) last rail winner. Does new gate system help?

7-Mandaloun (PC): Clunker in last, 1956 (Needles) last time winner was 5th/worse in prior. Training solid. Redemption?

8-Medina Spirit (EP): Consistent 90 Beyers. Baffert - nuff said. Seems to be more Robin than Batman.

9-Hot Rod Charlie (EP): Style versatility, Shocking 2nd as 94:1 in BC Juvenile (2nd to Essential Quality). Improving Beyers.

10-Midnight Bourbon (EP): Consistent Beyers 96 in last 2. Purchased for $525k. Will he live up to the hype?

14-Essential Quality* (PC): Godolphin Racing has yet to win Derby neither has a Louisville native trainer (crazy). Warranted favorite as never lost which have proven successful of late. 

15-Rock Your World (EP): 2 of 3 career races on Turf. Similar to Riders Up Selection Barbaro. $650k price tag with classic pedigree. 3 for 3 in wins.

17-Highly Motivated (PC): Wise guy pick. 2010 (Super Saver) last time winner failed to win as a 3-year old. Improving high 90 Beyers. No Derby Winner ever from 17 hole.

* Essential Quality is proper ML Favorite

2021 Riders Up Selection

Hot Rod Charlie. Fan of the set-up with third race off a layoff, proper recent Derby winner running style, a blowout on Wednesday in training showing energy. Wish I could get the 94.40:1 he had in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile where he placed behind Essential Quality. This time he turns the tables as Blue Grass may have taken its toll on Elusive Quality. 

Hot Rod Charlie's connections are 5 former Brown Football teammates six years removed from college. They created Boat Race LLC (yes after the drinking game) and this is their 3rd horse. Interestingly was their last if it failed to perform. The second was claimed and $100k claiming funds parlayed into this colt. This crew is reminiscent of my 10 closest Notre Dame friends who started an annual Boys Trip in 1997 thanks to our group's Kentucky representative, Buck. Probably the first ownership group requesting PTO to enjoy all that Louisville offers during Derby week in an Airbnb. 

ESPN's Marty Smith, aka the hipper Tom Rinaldi, had them on his Podcast (first 25minutes) providing insight to these connections and will be partying with them Friday evening at a local distillery. The connections are giving back. The group's ringleader, Patrick O'Neill, father died of Melanoma in 2015. His dad's brothers are Hot Rod Charlie's trainer and bloodstock agent. In honor of the "6th man," they are donating 1/6 of all future earnings to Melanoma Research Alliance. This narrative would be quite the tale.    

WIN             9-Hot Rod Charlie (EP)

PLACE        14-Essential Quality* (PC)   

SHOW         15-Rock Your World (EP)     

4th               17-Highly Motivated (PC)        

5th               7-Mandaloun (PC)

Others         1-Known Agenda (PC), 8-Medina Spirit (EP), 10-Midnight Bourbon (EP) 

Underneath   2-Like the King (EP), 4-Keepmeinmind (C), 6-O Besos (PC)

Riders Up! See You in the Winner's Circle.