Preakness 135 Selection

Back again with the second leg of the Triple Crown.  But first a quick point about the Derby.  After reviewing the video, I am still am amazed at how Ice Box fared demonstrating what an animal he is and that the race fit him perfectly.  Guess it was in his name that a hockey term would describe his Derby-- as he was "checked" three separate times and still nearly made it happen.   The running style of the Derby was my favorite -- blowout quarter/half with a deep closer coming on strong.  At the quarter I was thrilled knowing Ice Box would be there at the wire.  Had Super Saver faced any trouble it may have been a different story.

On a personal note, this weekend I graduate from Notre Dame with my MBA -- 15 years after I received my undergrad from the Golden Dome.  Having played hockey for the Irish it is only fitting that my ceremony takes place in the ice arena The race has many "Irish" ties. With that look out for my sentimental bet to go along with my real selections.

As for the Preakness, this race will have a completely different style as all the early speed (Conveyance, Sidney's Candy and Line of David) from the Derby did not make the trip to Baltimore.  Furthermore the "fresh" horses do not exhibit any early speed.  This will make this a different handicapping challenge -- who will take the reigns and dictate the pace.  

Preakness Trends

• In Last 13 Years 7 Derby winners have gone on to win Preakness
• Only 2 out last 25 Preakness winners has been a newcomer ("non-Derby runner)
• 2000 Red Bullet beat Fusaichi Pegasus
• 2006 Bernardini (Barabaro's last race -- God rest his soul); I did have both across the board
• In last 25 years the Derby winner's odds in Preakness at 1.80 to 1 odds or lower (most likely case for Super Saver) have won only 2 in 9 tries (Big Brown 2008 and Smarty Jones 2004).
• The remaining 16 races saw 7 out of 14 (Grindstone and Spend A Buck did not race in Preakness) favorites won at odds greater than 1.80 to 1 and higher.
• In last 25 years the Derby Winner's record is 9 Wins - 6 Places - 3 Shows
• Based on this Super Saver will be up against many trends as the "mighty favorite." 
• His 2 race results as favorite - win (2nd career race 44k Maiden) and show (Tampa Bay Derby)
• History note: In 1919 Sir Barton won The Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May then the following Wednesday (yes 4 days later) won the Preakness.  The game has changed.

Notes about the field

• No early speed. 
• Had A Little Warmer been in the race - he would have changed complexion with his speed. 
• 5 horses entered only have 1 career win
• Aikenite, Pleasant Prince, Northern Giant, Paddy O'Prado, First Dude
• 3 horses entered have only 2 wins
• Schoolyard Dreams (2 wins in 6 tries)
• Yawanna Twist (2 out of 4)
• Dublin (2 out of 9)
• Class of this race is again sub-par or orthodox

Notes on each horse

Pretty telling that Garrett Gomez did not pick up mount after being Donald "Trumped " off of Lookin At Lucky.  Off a big race in Derby Trial 96 Beyer.

Will be the last to make it into Baltimore traveling from Monmouth on Saturday morning. Upstart Trainer - Musket Man last year in TC. Solid Beyers.

 2nd to Ice Box in FLA Derby (best career race).  Bounced in last two since.

Brett Farve anyone?? D Wayne Lukas (age 74) brings in this horse who ironically shares #4 -- name ties in well also.

My pick to control pace -- like this factor in a non-speed duel. Last two outings solid. Hmmm -- will have big odds.

Pace shift helps tremendously.  Blowout work coming off Derby.  Zito won with Louis Quatorze in 1996 with a similar set-up.  Hmmmm.

"You're Fired!"  Gomez now on Dublin.  Been a favorite in every race until now -- how will he respond.  Signs of Point Given -- last Derby runner who lost that came back to win Preakness.

Derby winner will be in Stall 40 this week (Smarty Jones look-a-like?).  Nothing to dislike except his odds. Clean trip in Derby different race here -- but very versatile and can run this style of race.

Proponent of 1st timers on dirt (His 1st race was dirt @ 4f -- tossing out).  Cali bred/Only Gelding.  Super Saver is his uncle.  Last out impressed me despite 4th place -- Lookin At Lucky trouble affected him as he was behind the mess.

Loved what he did for me in the Derby.  Still a turf pedigree and no works since -- Bounce Bounce Bounce.

Given that I lean to the right with politics.  Named after Todd Palin -- yep Sarah's hubby which oddly First Dude's mom is named Run Sarah Run.  Being an elephant I must say Sarah needs to stop -- she is killing the GOP.  Fly Down who beat FD won the Dwyer last weekend and may be pointed to Belmont.

Solid performances but given the style of this race the 12 spot may actually hurt.  Gomez in the irons is an asset -- but why 7 riders in his 10th start?  Dad - Afleet Alex won this race.

Handicapping the Race

"Scoop of Chocolate...Scoop of Vanilla...Don't Waste my time"   --  1, 3, 4

In action but not in my primary selection --it's not to say they won't be involved in a tri or super. 2, 10, 11

Leaves us with 6 to look at and configure your wager.

5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 

Longshot - My Bud Longshot to click. Big odds. 5

And the Winner is...

1st -  (6)

2nd - (8)

3rd -  (9)

4th -  (12)5th - (7)

Still determining my betting strategy for this selection.

Please Note Additional Wagering Strategy:

Super Saver Plan

Nothing against Super Saver but the odds will be extremely low, if they are above 2 to 1 then I consider across the board on him.  I will definitely key Super Saver in a trifecta with these 5 horses

8 w/ 5, 6, 7, 9, 12 w/ 5, 6, 7, 9, 12 [thus, $2 tri is $40bet]

Sentimental Bet - Notre Dame/Graduation tie-in

$2 Exacta Box 2, 6, 7, 10, 12

It is rather self explanatory how each of these ties into Notre Dame Fighting Irish and school.

See you in the Winner's Circle.  Riders Up!