Handicapping the 142nd Belmont Stakes

Welcome back.  Sorry I have been on hiatus since the Preakness.  So we move on to New York and this running of the Belmont does not see one horse who raced in the first two legs of the Triple Crown. 

Before we move onto the race itself, there is a noticeable change to tradition as the horses hit the post parade.  This is sure to garner the crowd's attention.  Frank Sinatra is being replaced by Shawn Carter (Jay-Z) and Alicia Keys.  "New York, New York" has been placed on waivers for "Empire State of Mind."  Granted I do like Jay-Z's tune, but I am not sure if this is the rightful place at this time.  Please give it say 6 or 7 years not months before we christen it as the new anthem -- much like Charlie Weis be anointed the savior 3/4 into his first season and rewarded with a 10 year deal -- how did that turn out?  Oh still waiting for him to beat a year end top 20 team.

Now onto the race...My Derby selection and 2nd place finisher, Ice Box, is back for the race he has been bred for.  Also here is the 2nd place finisher from The Preakness, First Dude (Will Todd Palin be in attendance?).  Ice Box is the class of the field and had he avoided 1 of the 3 hip checks received in the Derby, we would be discussing this race possibly in a different light.

The pace of this race will be much different that the Derby.  We do not have the early speed that destroyed the 1/4 and 1/2 in that race setting up perfectly for Ice Box (note Make Music For Me also benefited) as he "flew down" the stretch to try and catch the Super Saver (absolute perfect trip).  This hurts Ice Box here but by how much is the question.  I expect First Dude, Interactif and Spangled Star to get out early given rather weak early speed.  Remember this race is 1 1/2 miles which is 1/4 longer than the Derby.

Toss Out: 1-Dave in Dixie, 2-Star Spangled, 10-Stay Put

Eliminate but can factor: 4-Make Music For Me, 9-Stately Victor, 12-Interactif

Possible In Money - My guess not to win: 3-Uptowncharleybrown, 7-Drosselmeyer, 8- Game On Dude

Top 3 Targets: 5-Fly Down, 6-Ice Box, 11-First Dude

Since those at the Belmont are seeking an "Empire State of Mind" -- you have got to look at New York's best trainer, Nick Zito.  I have ridden him in my first two legs (Ice Box and Jackson Bend)  Each returned on WPS.  Given the pace scenario affecting this race and the best horse (Ice Box)...hmmm what to do.  I really want to lean again on Ice Box (given the great Stanley Cup we are seeing) and certainly will in my wagering but for these purposes, I have to go another direction for my "official" selection.

Selection

WIN:      5-Fly Down - Seems to be peaking and was impressive here at Belmont last time out

PLACE:  6-Ice Box - Love this horse and his breeding, pace scenario scares me slightly.

SHOW:  11-First Dude - Life time run last out and has never beaten either Ice Box or Fly Down.

4th:         3-Uptowncharleybrown - Sneaky horse here

Betting angle -- all about Zito (thus Pletcher, Baffet, Zito winner's of this years TC races):

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  Ice Box and Fly Down will be keyed as my top in a tri and super.
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  Zito Exacta Box
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  WPS on 5 and 6
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  Long shots: W on 3 and 8

Have a great Belmont!

 "See you in the Winner's Circle.  Riders Up!"